Coconut Market Brief 5th Febuary 2026

 Desiccated coconut: steady export ranges; local prices slightly softer

Exported desiccated coconut remains notably stable, with prices of 147–190¢/lb FOB holding steady for 22 weeks. Manila’s domestic desiccated coconut prices slightly decreased to ₱5,305–5,601 per 100-lb bag. This indicates that the DC market is behaving more like a “contractual” market—less volatile than oil—though lead times and availability could quickly tighten if EU demand resumes and coconut oil supplies increase.

Coconut oil: “low-point” psychology meets firmer European bids

Rotterdam finally experienced fresh activity after months of stagnation: a February/March parcel was reported at US$2,175/MT CIF, with sellers’ expectations for nearby or forward positions typically in the US$2,075–2,275/MT range. The market sentiment has improved as copra prices at origin increased, and the lauric complex gained momentum from stronger palm oil.
The main structural feature remains the narrowing premium of coconut oil over palm kernel oil (PKO)—now near the psychological US$200–300/MT zone—prompting switch-buyers to revisit coconut oil at current levels.
This price trend also reflects market speculation about large amounts of inventory/reserves stored across parts of Asia, including merchant and industrial stocks held close to end-use, which has dampened immediate demand in Europe. If European buyers see today’s levels as the cycle’s low—and if Asian stockholders start releasing their stocks for export—the next phase could be a rebound driven by restocking, especially for nearby shipments.

Philippines: copra rally feeds through into oil values

Domestic copra prices in the Philippines have climbed back into the ₱7,000+ per 100kg range across regions. Quezon is priced around ₱7,250–7,900 per 100kg, while other producing areas are generally between ₱7,100 and ₱7,600 per 100kg. According to PCA daily data from February 5, the average millgate price is approximately ₱70.11 per kg, and the average farmgate price is about ₱54.48 per kg. This indicates that raw material costs are increasing at the source.

Local coconut oil prices also reflect this upward trend: crude coconut oil is valued around ₱122–140 per kg (VAT excluded), while RBD coconut oil is priced between ₱142 and ₱147 per kg (VAT excluded). In summary, the Philippine cost curve is strengthening, even as the export market continues to debate whether Rotterdam has already hit its lowest point.

Global edible oils: palm strength, soy uncertainty, lauric spillover

Palm oil’s outlook is bolstered by expectations of lower short-term production and increased exports, leading to stock reductions in Malaysia. Meanwhile, sentiment around the soy complex stays volatile as South American crop prospects influence future supply forecasts. This combination has kept tropical oils generally stronger, with coconut oil increasingly reacting to cross-market signals—such as PKO spreads and palm oil trends—rather than acting independently.

Shipping: Far East → Europe freight keeps easing into Lunar New Year

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) decreased again to US$1,959 per 40ft. Importantly for coconut exporters, Shanghai–Rotterdam spot rates were estimated at approximately US$2,164 per 40ft, down week on week. This suggests reduced landed-cost pressure into Europe as buyers reconsider their coverage decisions.

Watchlist (next 2–6 weeks)

Asia-held inventory release: any visible stock drawdown or export push could quickly change sentiment.

Copra availability & weather: higher farmgate prices indicate a tighter raw material supply.

Indonesia downstreaming: ongoing investments in processing capacity may increase competition in value-added derivatives over the medium term.

Freight volatility: near-term fluctuations depend on capacity management and blank sailings, especially for Europe deliveries.

Note: The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.