Coconut Market Weekly Update 17th Feb 2026

Philippine copra and coconut oil prices strengthened again this week, supported by firm global vegetable oil markets, while desiccated coconut faces growing oversupply and pricing uncertainty.

Desiccated Coconut: Oversupply Emerging

The desiccated coconut market is currently experiencing oversupply. Export prices stay roughly steady at 147–190¢/lb FOB, but market sentiment has weakened.

There is an oversupply of desiccated coconut, as many buyers are already covered for Q1. China is buying less coconut milk, weakening demand for raw materials. Meanwhile, new entrants in the Philippine processing sector are adding to an already abundant supply.

Some manufacturers are reportedly selling warehoused products at significant discounts, causing price distortions and short-term volatility. This has created uncertainty in the spot market, with aggressive offers undermining official price ranges.

Although long-term fundamentals for coconut ingredients remain solid, the short-term outlook is fragile and cautious.

Philippines: Copra and Coconut Oil

Domestic copra prices stay high, with average millgate prices near PHP 70/kg, well above the mid-60s seen from October to December. Farmgate prices are close to PHP 54/kg, indicating ongoing tightness in raw material supplies despite seasonal gains.

In Rotterdam, coconut oil (CNO) trades between USD 2,155 and 2,290 per MT CIF, remaining steady through the week. The gap between coconut oil and palm kernel oil has widened, highlighting coconut oil’s structural scarcity compared to other lauric oils.

Locally, crude coconut oil is priced around PHP 133–144/kg (excluding VAT), and RBD oil between PHP 145–151/kg. The price stability of coconut oil mirrors broader strength across vegetable oils. Malaysian palm oil output is forecast to decline in 2026 after reaching record levels in 2025.

Meanwhile, China’s palm oil demand is weakening as cheaper soybean and canola oils capture more market share. U.S. imports of lauric oils remain stable, though coconut oil volumes have decreased relative to palm kernel oil.

Regional Supply Developments

The Philippine Coconut Authority maintains its nationwide replanting efforts, with ongoing large-scale seedling distribution. In the medium term, this aims to support structural growth in production, although short-term output still depends on weather conditions.

Indonesia is further developing its downstream coconut sector, especially in exporting coconut milk to China’s beverage industry. However, weakening Chinese demand signals could reduce regional price support for coconut products.

Shipping & Logistics

Container freight rates from the Far East to Europe have stabilised after years of extreme volatility. According to Drewry’s World Container Index, rates are now more stable, offering greater predictability for exporters.

Although freight costs are still above their long-term averages, they are no longer the primary cost factor they once were. This stability helps Philippine exporters as they manage volatile product prices.

Outlook

Coconut oil remains largely stable within the global lauric complex, driven by concerns over palm oil production and ongoing Western demand. Meanwhile, the desiccated coconut sector is experiencing short-term oversupply, with buyer coverage extending through Q1, lower Chinese milk demand, and inventory liquidation at discounted prices.