Coconut & Edible Oils Market Briefing Week of 9 March 2026

Crude oil shock: biofuels back in the money — and that matters for vegetable oils

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from a ‘risk premium” to actual supply and logistics constraints, with tanker availability and war-risk insurance now serving as critical factors rather than just headline issues. When commercial passage is no longer economically viable, energy markets adjust their prices first, followed by food oils through freight costs, input prices, and biofuel economics.

The key concern for the oils complex is that crude oil prices need to be around US$90 per barrel to make biofuel blending economically attractive. Currently, prices are trading above US$110 per barrel due to the escalation in the Middle East.

At these higher levels, the “blend wall” shifts from being a political issue to one of feedstock availability, particularly for palm and soya oil. The market will begin to price in a tighter future balance, even if short-term food demand remains constrained by prices.

Coconut complex: Copra stabilises locally, while CIF Europe remains firm for now.

Philippine copra prices have decreased compared to recent months but remain stable week-on-week. PCA’s 6 March daily report shows an average millgate price of ₱66.50/kg and an average farmgate price of ₱52.75/kg, with small daily fluctuations but still notably below late-2025 peaks. This is significant because the domestic oil market is starting to incorporate higher processing and replacement costs, even as raw material prices decline.

Regarding coconut oil, the local benchmarks stay high: PCA reports crude coconut oil prices between ₱142.24 and 157.92 per kilogram, and RBD CNO (used for cooking oil) between ₱159.60 and 165.76 per kilogram. Internationally, UCAP’s latest bulletin notes Rotterdam coconut oil prices at US$2,218.50 per metric ton CIF (nearest forward), showing a slight week-on-week increase. However, trade remains heavily skewed, with buyers cautious. The main takeaway for exporters is that energy-driven inflation risks are reemerging, which typically supports the demand for “must-have” laurics in replacement formulas, even if discretionary food demand remains weak.

Desiccated coconut: export range steady, local prices easing

Desiccated coconut markets remain divided. UCAP maintains the export reference at 149 ¢/lb FOB (US/EU/Others) for the nearby position, while the local Manila range decreased to approximately ₱5,333 per 100-lb bag. This creates a margin-management window for processors: raw material costs have decreased from Q4 peaks, but energy and freight risks are increasing again—making hedging input costs like diesel, packaging, and steam as crucial as copra coverage.

Container shipping: Far East–Europe still under pressure, but upside risk is building

Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3% to US$1,958 per 40ft in the latest reading. Asia–Europe remains mixed: Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 2% to US$2,052, while Shanghai–Genoa rose 1% to US$2,844. The baseline picture is “soft rates + seasonal March demand rebound,”

The Hormuz-driven war-risk dynamic introduces tail-risk to schedules, insurance, and equipment positioning—meaning exporters should treat today’s rates as an opportunity to lock coverage rather than a new normal.