Coconut Market Update 24th August 2026

Market direction

Trading of nearby desiccated coconut and European coconut oil remains subdued, while palm oil, the weakening Philippine peso, and a strengthening El Niño are supporting a more solid external base for prices in late 2026 and 2027.

Desiccated coconut

Philippine export quotations remain unusually stable, with UCAP’s broad export range holding at 109–190¢/lb FOB for the 27th straight week. This indicates limited price discovery rather than an actively balanced market. The Philippine FOB reference was at $2,928/MT after no new ICC quotes on 15 and 22 August, while high-fat fine material stayed at €2,750/MT FCA EMP, roughly $3,217/MT. This euro price has been unchanged for 26 weeks and is about 21% lower than last year.

Competing origins are cheaper: Indonesian high-fat fine was at €2,500/MT, and Vietnam high-fat medium at €2,550/MT. Locally, UCAP’s Manila range slightly recovered to ₱5,506–5,812 per 100-lb bag after two weeks of decline. Overall, buyers still have negotiating power on nearby deals, but Philippine exporters have resisted further broad reductions in published offers.

Coconut oil and copra

Rotterdam coconut oil remained mostly untraded. UCAP indicated European sellers pricing at $1,830–2,015/MT CIF, while buyers offered $1,790–1,830/MT. The PCA’s reference from 20 August was $1,950/MT CIF Europe. At the origin, however, Philippine millgate crude coconut oil increased by 5.73% to $1,736/MT on the 15 August ICC report — marking the first significant uptick since June. This change has yet to be confirmed by a second weekly data point.

PCA data on 20 August showed average copra prices at ₱48.93/kg millgate and ₱37.07/kg farmgate, with domestic VAT-inclusive crude and RBD oil quotes ranging from ₱106.40–126.56/kg and ₱127.12–138.32/kg respectively. One stronger oil price in a thin market is a counter-signal, not a definitive reversal.

Palm oil

Palm oil has emerged as the dominant element within the vegetable-oil sector. In November, Bursa CPO prices hit MYR5,018 per ton, roughly $1,243 per ton, marking a 20-month peak with a weekly increase of about 6%. This rise was driven by Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel initiative, heightened El Niño concerns, disruptions in Black Sea sunflower-oil supply, and stronger energy prices. As palm and palm-kernel values climb, they set a higher external cost baseline for coconut oil, limiting the chances of a prolonged independent decline in lauric oils.

Container freight

Drewry’s World Container Index rose 4% to $4,526 per 40-foot container, but the increase came from the transpacific market. The relevant European lanes moved lower: Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 1% to $4,401, while Shanghai–Genoa declined 2% to $4,955. Drewry expects broadly stable Asia–Europe rates next week, although constrained capacity, congestion and announced Golden Week blank sailings argue for early booking. European coconut contracts should therefore be benchmarked against the Rotterdam lane, not the rising composite index.

El Niño outlook

NOAA now predicts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during autumn and winter 2026/27, with a 69% probability that October–December will reach record-breaking strength. In July, the Niño-3.4 anomaly registered +1.4°C, and rainfall has already been reduced over Indonesia.

For coconuts and palms, the main concern is a delayed impact: stress in late 2026 is likely to significantly affect fruit development and harvest availability in 2027. While nearby coconut markets can still follow the currently weak physical market, positions in Q2–Q3 2027 are increasingly likely to need a weather-risk premium.

A note on Rotterdam coconut oil prices

The Rotterdam market is now used relatively infrequently for physical coconut oil trading. A substantial proportion of international business is conducted privately between Philippine millers, major commodity traders and industrial buyers and is therefore not visible in published market data.

Consequently, a quiet Rotterdam market should not be interpreted as an absence of underlying business. We continue to report these prices because they remain one of the few transparent international reference points available, alongside our own market intelligence and direct trading activity.