Coconut Marlet News 19th October 2026

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The Philippine coconut market remained under pressure this week. Desiccated coconut export quotations were unchanged, but domestic coconut oil and copra prices fell sharply as raw-material movement increased. International coconut oil was broadly stable, while container freight rates rebounded following the end of China’s Golden Week.

Desiccated Coconut

The Philippine export price range for desiccated coconut remained unchanged at 109–190 US cents per pound FOB. This is now the 35th consecutive week without a change in the published range.

The representative export average was also steady at 135.17 cents per pound, equivalent to approximately US$2,980 per metric tonne before freight. This compares with 135.38 cents in September and 172.33 cents in October 2025.

The domestic DC market moved slightly higher after two weeks of decline. The average increased by ₱13.50 to ₱5,804 per 100-pound bag, while the Manila range rose to ₱5,647–5,961 from ₱5,634–5,947.

Export prices are therefore continuing to show considerably more stability than the underlying copra and coconut oil markets. This suggests processors remain reluctant to reduce DC replacement values despite lower raw-material prices.

Coconut Oil

International coconut oil values were broadly stable. The average nearest-forward European seller indication increased by US$3.50 to US$2,030.50 per tonne CIF Rotterdam.

The market nevertheless remained quiet, with limited buyer participation. Closing offers were approximately US$2,032.50 for October/November, US$2,030 for November/December and US$2,027.50 for December/January. Forward offers increased to US$2,055 for January/February, US$2,065 for February/March and US$2,080 for March/April.

Coconut oil’s premium over palm kernel oil widened further. PKO declined to an average of US$1,740 per tonne, giving coconut oil a premium of approximately US$290.50 for the nearest position. This is considerably wider than the US$222.83 premium recorded one week earlier.

Philippine domestic coconut oil prices were weaker. The weekly average for crude coconut oil fell by ₱5.20 to ₱109.30 per kilogram, excluding VAT. RBD coconut oil declined by ₱2.80 to ₱121.70.

By the end of the week, crude coconut oil sellers were indicating ₱95–121 per kilogram, compared with ₱103–122 the previous week. RBD offers closed at ₱115–127.50, down from ₱116.50–131.50.

The contrast between relatively stable Rotterdam prices and sharply weaker Philippine origin values reflects increased copra availability and limited domestic buying interest.

Copra Prices fall again

Copra prices recorded another substantial decline.

In Quezon, the average seller price fell by ₱420 to ₱5,095 per 100 kilograms. The buyer average declined by the same amount to ₱4,995.

The overall provincial mean fell from ₱5,401.71 to ₱5,101.71 per 100 kilograms. Declines ranged from ₱100 in parts of Northern and Western Mindanao to approximately ₱400–420 across Southern Tagalog, Bicol and the Visayas.

The speed of the recent fall suggests that processors are adequately covered and that more copra is reaching the market. Current values remain well below October 2025, when Quezon seller prices averaged ₱7,870 per 100 kilograms.

El Niño update

The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center assessment confirms that El Niño continues to strengthen. There is now a greater than 83% probability of a strong-to-very-strong event continuing through January–March 2027.

NOAA estimates an 83% chance that the October–December period will reach a level exceeding previous El Niño events in its historical record. The Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature index has risen to approximately 2.1°C.

PAGASA’s October agricultural outlook states that strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions are present and may peak before the end of 2026. Below-normal to near-normal rainfall is forecast across the Philippines during October, although tropical cyclones and other weather systems can still produce periods of heavy rain.

Rainfall increased during the latest UCAP reporting week, particularly in Luzon and Mindanao. Average rainfall rose to 72.3mm in Luzon and 72.4mm in Mindanao, while the Visayas recorded 29mm. This short-term improvement does not remove the wider El Niño risk, as rainfall distribution remains uneven and individual storms can temporarily interrupt a broader drying trend.

For coconut buyers, the present weather risk is more important for future supply than for immediate availability. Prolonged water stress can affect flowering, nut setting and fruit development, with the production consequences normally appearing several months later.

Container Shipping

Drewry’s World Container Index increased by 3% this week to US$4,485 per 40-foot container, reversing three consecutive weekly declines.

Shanghai-to-Rotterdam increased by 6% to US$3,522 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai-to-Genoa rose by 7% to US$3,945. These were the first increases on the Asia-Europe trade after 13 consecutive weeks of decline, as cargo volumes recovered following China’s Golden Week.

The rebound does not necessarily signal the beginning of a sustained rise. Carriers continue to balance rate-restoration attempts against softer seasonal demand and additional effective capacity as some services return to the Suez Canal.

Outlook

The immediate market remains relatively favourable for buyers. Copra and domestic coconut oil prices have fallen, while Desiccated Coconut export quotations have not moved higher.

However, this softer short-term position should be balanced against the strengthening El Niño, the possibility of increased pest pressure and continued uncertainty over future coconut production. The latest rise in Asia-Europe freight rates also demonstrates how quickly logistics costs can change when carriers adjust capacity.

Buyers with requirements extending into 2027 may therefore wish to consider the present weakness as an opportunity to review forward coverage rather than assume that current conditions will continue throughout next year

A note on Rotterdam coconut oil prices

The Rotterdam market is now used relatively infrequently for physical coconut oil trading. A substantial proportion of international business is conducted privately between Philippine millers, major commodity traders and industrial buyers and is therefore not visible in published market data.

Consequently, a quiet Rotterdam market should not be interpreted as an absence of underlying business. We continue to report these prices because they remain one of the few transparent international reference points available, alongside our own market intelligence and direct trading activity.