Coconut Market Newsletter Monday 26 October 2026

TL;DR – Market at a Glance

Coconut oil prices continue to soften, while desiccated coconut export prices remain remarkably stable. European coconut oil averaged US$2,006/MT CIF, down US$24 week-on-week, with weaker demand and improving Philippine copra availability putting pressure on prices.

Desiccated coconut export quotations remain unchanged at 109–190¢/lb FOB for the 36th consecutive week, although domestic Philippine DC prices edged higher.

Copra prices continue their downward trend, with Philippine millgate averages now approximately 32% below October 2025.

Meanwhile, freight costs are rising again, with Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam index up 3% to US$3,632 per 40ft container. Philippine coconut oil export volumes remain strong, but DC shipments are showing signs of weakness.

Desiccated Coconut – Export Prices Hold Firm

International desiccated coconut (DC) quotations have now remained unchanged for 36 weeks, with Philippine sellers quoting 109–190¢/lb FOB across European, US and other export markets.

The reported average quotation remains at 135.17¢/lb, significantly below the 172.33¢/lb recorded in October 2025.

However, domestic Philippine DC prices edged upwards to PHP5,661–5,975 per 100lb bag, compared with PHP5,647–5,961 the previous week.

Despite stable export quotations, underlying supply indicators deserve attention. June DC exports fell 8.6% year-on-year to 12,301 MT, while export earnings declined 15.9%.

Market outlook: Although export prices appear stable, reduced shipments and firmer domestic quotations suggest buyers should continue monitoring availability rather than assuming that prices will fall in line with coconut oil.

Coconut Oil – Prices Continue to Weaken

The European coconut oil market remains subdued, with limited buying interest and improved copra availability at origin contributing to downward pressure.

Average European coconut oil quotations declined from US$2,030.50 to US$2,006.35/MT CIF, a weekly reduction of US$24.15.

Forward Rotterdam offers for early 2027 remain above US$2,000/MT, reaching US$2,065 for March/April shipment.

Domestic Philippine crude coconut oil quotations also weakened to PHP90–121/kg, while refined RBD coconut oil fell to PHP113.50–127.50/kg, both excluding VAT.

Coconut oil’s premium over palm kernel oil narrowed sharply to just US$11.35/MT, compared with US$290.50 the previous week.

Market outlook: Weaker immediate demand is offering buyers opportunities, although forward quotations still indicate some expectation of firmer prices into 2027.

Copra – Philippine Prices Continue Falling

Philippine copra prices remain under pressure as raw-material availability improves.

According to the Philippine Coconut Authority’s figures for 23 October, average millgate prices stood at PHP49.50/kg, compared with PHP73.21/kg a year earlier, a decline of approximately 32%.

Farmgate prices averaged PHP37.43/kg, approximately 35% below October 2025.

These reductions are contributing to lower domestic coconut oil prices and easing pressure on processors.

However, the longer-term effect of weather conditions on future coconut production remains an important consideration.

Philippine Exports – Oil Stronger Than DC

June’s coconut product exports increased 40.4% year-on-year in copra-equivalent terms, reaching 200,683 MT.

Coconut oil exports rose 47.4% to 111,330 MT, with Europe accounting for approximately 67.5% of June oil shipments.

During the first six months of 2026, total coconut product exports increased 9.5% in copra-equivalent terms.

However, the differing performance of coconut oil and desiccated coconut highlights the uneven recovery across the Philippine processing sector.

Edible Oils – Mixed Market Signals

Palm kernel oil recovered strongly to US$1,995/MT CIF, while palm oil strengthened to approximately US$1,546/MT CIF.

Malaysian palm oil stocks reached a historically high 3.5 million MT at the end of September, although expectations of seasonal production declines and potential El Niño-related disruption are supporting prices.

Soybean oil markets remain influenced by expectations of record US soybean production and uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand.

These diverging trends are narrowing the historical premium between coconut oil and competing vegetable oils.

Container Shipping – Freight Costs Rising Again

Drewry’s World Container Index increased 2% to US$4,585 per 40ft container on 22 October, its second consecutive weekly increase.

Asia–Europe rates are rising more quickly. Shanghai–Rotterdam increased 3% to US$3,632, while Shanghai–Genoa rose 5% to US$4,152.

Shipping lines are managing capacity through additional blank sailings, with eight cancellations announced for the following week.

Although congestion at major Asian ports has eased, security concerns around Middle Eastern shipping routes continue to introduce uncertainty.

For European coconut importers, rising freight costs could offset some of the savings currently available from lower raw-material prices.

Looking Ahead

The market continues to present contrasting signals. Lower coconut oil and copra prices are improving immediate purchasing opportunities, while stable DC export prices and reduced DC shipments suggest a more cautious outlook for desiccated coconut.

For buyers, the current period may offer an opportunity to review forward requirements and secure some coverage before potential 2027 supply pressures or higher freight costs affect landed prices

A note on Rotterdam coconut oil prices

The Rotterdam market is now used relatively infrequently for physical coconut oil trading. A substantial proportion of international business is conducted privately between Philippine millers, major commodity traders and industrial buyers and is therefore not visible in published market data.

Consequently, a quiet Rotterdam market should not be interpreted as an absence of underlying business. We continue to report these prices because they remain one of the few transparent international reference points available, alongside our own market intelligence and direct trading activity.