Coconut & Edible Oils Market Update 2nd Febuary 2026

Desiccated coconut: steady pricing, resilient demand

Desiccated coconut remains one of the most stable coconut products in today’s complex market. Export prices have stayed remarkably steady for several months, with only minor week-to-week changes in the domestic Manila bag market.

Demand remains strong across North America and Europe, and processors report solid forward interest in standard grades. For buyers, the main concern is less about price fluctuations and more about input costs, such as nuts and copra, and freight expenses, which can significantly affect the landed cost even when FOB DC prices are stable.

Coconut oil: Rotterdam subdued; domestic mills track raw material rebound

On the global stage, the coconut oil market in Europe stays calm and within a narrow range, with cautious buyers and a still-limited premium for the lauric complex compared to palm kernel oil. This premium gap constrains potential gains, even when other vegetable oils occasionally strengthen.

Meanwhile, in the Philippines, quotes for crude coconut oil (CCO) are testing higher levels alongside copra prices, while RBD cooking oil remains supported by local demand and consistent retail prices. The main short-term factor influencing the market is copra supply: any disruptions in farmgate flow—due to weather, logistics, or tighter collector financing—quickly lead to increased mill bids.

Copra: firming domestically as supply tightens

Philippine copra prices have continued to recover from the early-January dip. According to PCA’s latest daily data, the average millgate price is approximately ₱67.18 per kilogram, while the farmgate price is around the low-₱50s per kilogram. Regionally, demand remains strongest in Mindanao and some parts of Southern Tagalog, where competition among mills and traders maintains premiums for prompt deliveries. Compared to the November peak—when millgate prices were often in the mid-₱70s per kilogram—current levels suggest a significantly more available raw material supply. However, the sentiment has become more optimistic as stocks are being rebuilt in preparation for the February/March processing period.

Broader edible oils: mixed signals, palm/soy dynamics still set the tone

Within the broader edible oils market, supply and demand are influenced by seasonal palm oil expectations, soy oil demand are linked to biofuel policies, and continued uncertainties regarding Black Sea exports of sunflower products. Coconut oil is affected because its cross-elasticity with palm kernel oil is most apparent when sentiment around the palm complex changes. A sustained increase in palm kernel oil prices usually narrows the discount for coconut oil, while declining palm values can pressure coconut oil prices unless copra supply tightens significantly.

Philippines industry notes: Investment and trade data remain price-driven

Industry headlines still focus on pricing trends: export volumes for various coconut products are down compared to last year, but revenues have increased due to higher average prices. Additionally, investments in regional processing, like new coconut oil milling facilities at the provincial level, show a sustained effort to shorten supply chains, enhance farmer involvement, and boost value-added activities outside traditional centres.

Container freight: easing again into the Chinese New Year

Container rates have decreased for the third week in a row, primarily driven by drops on Asia–Europe routes. Freight costs into North Europe have fallen, easing landed costs for desiccated coconut and consumer-pack oils. However, carrier capacity management, such as blank sailings and route decisions near the Suez Canal, introduces unpredictability—so buyers should view freight as a variable cost instead of a fixed expense for Q1 shipments.

Note: The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.