Coconut Market Newsletter 16th June 2026

El Niño

El Niño has become a primary medium-term supply risk. Models suggest a 79% chance of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, possibly lasting into early 2027. For Philippine coconuts, the concern is not immediate nut availability but the delay: the current dry monsoon presents a yield risk for Q4 2026–2027.

Although the rainy season has officially started, field reports are mixed, with sporadic rainfall and a weakened southwest monsoon across parts of Luzon and the Visayas.

Desiccated Coconut 

Philippine FOB export reference stays at $3,230/MT, unchanged for the 17th week, while EU FCA prices range from $3,126 to $3,624/MT. UCAP’s export price range is between 109 and 190¢/lb FOB, and Manila domestic sellers are offering ₱5,550 to ₱5,858 per 100-lb bag.

The main competitive pressure comes from origin competition: Indonesia’s fine DC is priced at $2,050/MT FOB, its lowest year-to-date, making the Philippines relatively expensive. However, Philippine prices are still supported by quality, certification, and contracted demand.

Oils 

Bursa CPO decreased to approximately $1,081/MT, soybean oil dropped to about $1,540/MT, and rapeseed to around $596/MT. Meanwhile, sunflower oil stays relatively stable due to the limited old-crop supply. Consequently, the premium for coconut oil has diminished this week, as energy markets and competing oils no longer exert upward pressure.

Shipping 

Shipping costs remain high, though the panic has abated. Drewry’s World Container Index increased 3% to $3,549/40ft as of June 11, marking a notable slowdown from the previous surge. The Asia–Europe route continues to face pressure: Shanghai–Rotterdam prices rose 5% to $3,768/40ft, and Shanghai–Genoa saw a 1% increase to $5,139/40ft. The early peak season, June’s pull-forward ahead of the July 1 bunker adjustment, and carrier FAK/PSS increases remain positive indicators for freight. Consequently, bookings for July and August should be confirmed but not booked impulsively.

The US-Iran preliminary peace deal and the upcoming reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have eased some of last week’s energy risk premiums, leading to lower crude prices and a more favourable purchasing environment. However, this is not an official reopening: AP reports that hundreds of ships are still stuck, and mine clearance, along with secure lane verification, could take weeks or months. Flows will not return to normal immediately.

Note:

The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.