Coconut Market Newsletter 23 Feb 2026

Desiccated coconut: export range widens; Manila market ticks lower

After months of stability, UCAP reported that the desiccated coconut export range shifted to 109–190¢/lb FOB, ending a period of tighter pricing and reflecting mixed coverage and buyer cautiousness.37:9†UWB 2-19-26.pdf†L47-L54 In Manila, desiccated coconut prices declined to PHP 5,248–5,539 per 100-lb bag from PHP 5,295–5,589

With steady yet price-sensitive global demand for confectionery and bakery products, the market is likely to remain “two-tier”: supported by premium specs and packaging, while standard grades may face discounts when supply is readily available.

Philippines: copra supply loosens, prices cool from early‑Feb highs

Philippine copra prices fell in late February as buyers became more selective and nearby supplies grew. According to the PCA’s Daily Market Prices (20 Feb), the average millgate copra was PHP 66.55/kg, down PHP 4.62/kg from last week but still PHP 2.81/kg higher than last month. The average farmgate price was PHP 54.73/kg, decreasing PHP 1.89/kg week-on-week but rising PHP 3.17/kg month-on-month.

Regionally, the market remains diverse: millgate quotations range from the low 60s to low 70s/kg depending on proximity to the oil mill and logistics, keeping inter-island arbitrage in focus.

UCAP’s Weekly Bulletin (week ending 14 Feb) noted a similar “air pocket” after an extended rally: Quezon sellers lowered prices to PHP 6,950–8,000 per 100 kg (from PHP 7,900–8,200 the prior week), with buyers following suit. The near-term outlook suggests copra is shifting from weather-driven tightness to a more balanced state—monitor rainfall patterns and harvesting pace as we progress into Q1.

Coconut oil: Rotterdam steadies; domestic crude follows lower

In Europe, coconut oil prices stayed within a range, experiencing a modest week-on-week decline. UCAP estimated European (CIF) sellers at USD 2,261.20/MT, a decrease of USD 3.80/MT.

PCA’s daily report (20 Feb) indicated coconut oil Europe CIF at USD 2,230/MT, with palm kernel oil at USD 1,990/MT and crude palm oil at USD 1,375/MT—maintaining coconut oil’s significant premium, though more contested as palm kernel oil remains steady.

Locally, PCA quoted crude coconut oil mill gate prices between PHP 134.96 and 157.92 per kg, and RBD at PHP 159.6 to 168 per kg.

UCAP also observed that local crude and RBD prices have “tumbled” compared to the previous week, with buyers mostly waiting for clearer market signals.

Trade signal: volumes down, value still price-supported

UCAP’s foreign trade indicators suggest that demand is present, but volumes are lagging. In Jan–Feb 2026, coconut oil exports were 121,735 MT, down 53.8% from 263,392 MT a year earlier, while desiccated coconut totalled 24,541 MT during this period.

The decline in volumes, despite still-high prices, highlights the critical role of logistics reliability and contract performance.

Freight: Asia–Europe continues to cheapen (Drewry)

Drewry’s World Container Index dropped 1% to USD 1,919 per 40ft as it extended a multi-week decline, mainly due to softer Transpacific and Asia–Europe routes.

For Far East to Europe, Shanghai–Rotterdam decreased 1% to USD 2,109, while Shanghai–Genoa fell 2% to USD 2,895, with carriers using blank sailings around Chinese New Year closures to manage volatility. For coconut shippers, this improves cost visibility into Europe, though schedule reliability remains a concern.

Broader edible oils, including palm oil, remain supported by seasonal demand and supply expectations, with production and demand from India and China as key factors. Soybeans and soybean oil are influenced by South American crop conditions and policy headlines, with continued focus on demand and China-linked buying. When palm and palm kernel supplies tighten, coconut oil’s premium maintains its value; when soy softens, it limits upside potential.

Note: The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.