Coconut Market Newsletter 28th October 2025

Market Overview

The coconut products market continued to face downward pressure during the week ending 18 October 2025, with prices falling across most categories. In the international market, coconut oil remained subdued, with only seller participation in Rotterdam. Coconut oil prices opened the week at $2,475-2,595/MT CIF for positions from October/November through May/June 2026 but decreased throughout the week to settle at $2,440-2,520/MT CIF by week’s end. The market has been marked as inactive for an extended period, reflecting the difficult conditions the industry faces.

Desiccated Coconut Maintains Stability

The desiccated coconut market showed relative stability during the review period, with export prices remaining steady at 147-190¢/lb FOB for the seventh consecutive week across all major markets, including the USA, Europe, and others. This consistency offered a rare bright spot amid broader market volatility. In the domestic market, desiccated coconut prices rose slightly to P5,233-5,524 per 100-lb bag from the previous week’s P5,232-5,523, indicating modest upward momentum in local trading conditions. The weekly average for the week ending October 18 was P5,379 per 100 lbs. bag, a marginal increase of P1.50 from the prior week.

Coconut Oil Pricing Trends

Domestic coconut oil markets reflected the downward trend seen internationally. Crude coconut oil sellers finished the week at P131-140 per kilogram (VAT exclusive), compared to P135-146 the week before, while RBD coconut oil sellers closed at P153.50-156.00 per kilogram, down from P154.50-157.00. As of October 27, the millgate price range for crude coconut oil was P156.80-168.00 per kilogram (VAT inclusive).

The price premium of coconut oil over palm kernel oil narrowed slightly in 2025 positions while increasing in forward 2026 contracts, with the weekly average premium rising marginally to $518.78/MT from $513.90 the previous week.

Domestic Copra Prices Under Pressure

Local copra prices fell sharply across key producing areas this week. In Quezon, the main copra trading centre, seller prices fell to P7,450-7,600 per 100 kilos from last week’s P7,550-8,700, while buyer prices also decreased to P7,350-7,500 from P7,450-8,600.

Similar trends were observed in Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao, where seller prices ranged from P7,650-7,900 per 100 kilos, down from P8,250-8,500 the previous week. As of 27 October 2025, the national average millgate price stood at P71.07 per kilo, indicating ongoing weakness in the copra sector. Adverse weather conditions hindered copra delivery to mills, leading to reduced crushing activity and further market challenges.

Container Shipping Costs

Drewry’s World Container Index latest figures indicate a recent uptick in global container shipping costs, ending a prolonged period of weekly declines. As of the week ending 23 October 2025, the composite index increased by 3%, reaching $1,746 per 40-foot container after 17 straight weeks of decline.

Regional trends display mixed changes: Shanghai to Rotterdam rates rose 4% to $1,736, Shanghai to Genoa increased 2% to $1,855, and Shanghai to Los Angeles up 4% to $2,290 per 40-foot container.

The largest rise was on the Shanghai to New York route, climbing 6% to $3,420.

Market experts expect these recent rises to be temporary, mainly due to carrier-initiated rate hikes (GRIs), but anticipate more volatility and potential downward trends in the coming quarters as global demand and supply continue to realign.

Note:

The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.