Coconut Market Update 16th March 2026

The coconut market has become firmer this week, as the Middle East conflict and shipping risks near the Strait of Hormuz have introduced a new geopolitical premium to the entire edible oils sector.

In Europe, coconut oil prices in Rotterdam for nearby positions have risen back into a range of USD 2,160–2,325/MT CIF, with the UCAP weekly average at USD 2,249.50/MT, an increase of USD 31/MT from the previous week. Palm kernel oil has also rebounded to USD 2,016/MT, while palm oil remains significantly lower at USD 1,294/MT. This maintains a wide premium of coconut oil over palm oil, though the premium over palm kernel oil has narrowed. The message for buyers is clear: coconut oil is once again trading as a high-value lauric oil, supported now more by energy and freight risks than by coconut fundamentals.

In the Philippines, prices for domestic copra and coconut oil are also rising. UCAP reports that the average Quezon copra sells for PHP 7,185 per 100 kg, an increase of PHP 190 from the previous week. Crude coconut oil prices have climbed to an average of PHP 131.60 per kilogram. The PCA’s daily report from 11 March indicates the national average millgate copra at PHP 68.52 per kg and farmgate at PHP 54.15 per kg, with regional strength led by Region IV-A and Region XII millgate prices around PHP 72.93–73.50 per kg. Davao Oriental and Davao City continue to be among the strongest provincial markets. After a sharp correction from the October-November 2025 highs, the market seems to be establishing a more stable floor.

Desiccated coconut prices remain relatively stable but are still firm enough to protect processor margins. UCAP maintained export price indications at 109–190 c/lb FOB, with the weekly average at 146.5 c/lb FOB, just 2.5 c/lb lower than the previous week. In Manila, local desiccated coconut prices rose to PHP 5,263–5,555 per 100-lb bag, and January exports increased to 14,567 MT, a 24.7% year-on-year rise. This sector continues to be a bright spot in the Philippine coconut industry, supported by strong demand for food ingredients and ongoing interest in plant-based products.

Sri Lanka is increasing coconut milk powder production; India’s coconut shipments to Gulf markets are disrupted by the Iran conflict; and Indonesia is revisiting the possibility of adopting B50 biodiesel, which could boost palm oil prices and benefit the overall vegetable oils sector.

Container shipping conditions have become more favorable for sellers. The Drewry World Container Index increased by 8% this week to USD 2,123 per 40-ft container, with Shanghai–Rotterdam rising 19% to USD 2,443 and Shanghai–Genoa increasing 10% to USD 3,120. These higher Asia-Europe freight rates directly impact Philippine coconut oil and desiccated coconut exporters to Europe. Additionally, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel, significantly boosting war-risk insurance and vessel risk premiums. Although Philippine coconut exports do not pass through Hormuz, rising bunker fuel costs, insurance expenses, and shipping disruptions are affecting replacement prices. Essentially, the conflict is bullish for coconut and palm oil by three main channels: higher crude oil prices, increased freight rates, and renewed uncertainty in global supply chains.