Coconut Market Update 2nd December 2024

Shifting Price Trends in the Global Coconut Oil Market

Coconut oil prices in the Rotterdam market eased slightly this week, decreasing to $1,856.00 per metric ton (MT) CIF from $1,876.25 the previous week. The market remained subdued, with minimal trading interest in forward positions. Coconut oil continues to command a competitive premium over palm oil, which fell sharply to $1,286.50 per MT CIF. However, the discount of coconut oil compared to palm kernel oil widened to $100.56 per MT, indicating increased competition among tropical oils.

Domestic crude coconut oil prices in the Philippines increased, with sellers quoting between P92.00 and P93.50 per kilo, up from P90.50-P92.00 last week. The rally in local prices highlights strong demand and reduced supply from mills affected by recent weather disturbances.

Export Performance: Mixed Signals from Key Products

Philippine coconut oil exports for November totalled 48,000 MT, a year-on-year decline of 25.8%. However, higher market prices led to a 16.9% increase in export value, amounting to $78.6 million. Copra meal exports fell by 62.4%, reflecting lower production volumes and weaker global demand.

Among non-traditional products, virgin coconut oil registered $1.138 million in export revenues, led by demand from the USA and European markets. Other products, such as nata de coco and makapuno, saw substantial volume growth compared to last year, while young coconut exports declined by 29%.

Sri Lanka Takes Measures to Stabilize Coconut Prices

Sri Lanka is facing a supply crisis that has caused domestic coconut oil prices to rise to Rs. 700 per kilogram at wholesale. In response, the government is contemplating lifting restrictions on palm oil imports to alleviate the burden on consumers. This strategy addresses local supply shortfalls by providing more affordable alternatives, potentially easing the pressure on the market.

Shipping

The Drewry World Container Index fell by 2% to $3,331 per feu. This figure is 68% lower than the pandemic peak of $10,377 in September 2021 but still 134% higher than the average of $1,420 in 2019, before the pandemic.

The situation in the Suez Canal has not changed, meaning shipping is still going around Cape Horn, adding to journey times and costs.

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