Coconut Market Update Monday 31 August 2026

Market direction

The Philippine coconut market presented a divided picture this week. Copra and domestic desiccated coconut prices recovered, but local coconut oil values remained soft and international trading was thin. Forward coconut oil sellers nevertheless became more confident toward the end of the week, supported by firmer conditions elsewhere in the vegetable-oil markets.

Desiccated coconut

Philippine export prices for desiccated coconut have stayed steady at 109–190¢/lb FOB for the 28th week in a row. UCAP’s average remained unchanged at 132.83¢/lb, roughly US$2,928/MT, but is still 21% lower than August 2025.

Meanwhile, domestic replacement values moved in the opposite direction. Sellers in Manila increased their range to ₱5,551–5,860 per 100-lb bag, up from ₱5,506–5,812. The weekly average rose by 0.8% to ₱5,705.50 and is nearly 8% higher than the same period last year. This divergence indicates that local replacement costs for Philippine processors are rising despite stable export prices. Buyers should focus more on grade-specific offers, shipment timing, and actual availability than on the static published range.

Coconut oil

In Rotterdam, coconut oil prices remained steady, with sellers quoting US$1,855–2,095/MT CIF across nearby and forward contracts, while buyers indicated US$1,830–1,900/MT. The average of the nearest-forward sellers fell US$7.30 to US$1,962.70/MT, which is a modest 0.4% decrease week on week but roughly 28% below last August.

The forward curve closed firmer than the weekly average suggests, with September/October prices at US$2,040/MT and rising to US$2,095/MT for February/March 2027. Buyers reached US$1,900 nearby, but the bid-offer gap and lack of reported trades indicate limited liquidity. In the Philippines, VAT-exclusive crude coconut oil offers ranged from ₱93–113/kg, while RBD coconut oil was at ₱113–123.50/kg. Both declined slightly week on week, by 0.4% and 2.3%, respectively, with buyers remaining on the sidelines. The recent increase in copra prices has not yet significantly affected domestic oil prices.

Local copra

Copra stabilised after two weeks of decline. Quezon sellers listed prices from ₱5,050 to 5,500 per 100kg, with buyers offering ₱4,950 to 5,400. The average price rose 2.9% to ₱5,200, yet it is still nearly 29% lower than last year. In Bicol, the Visayas, and Mindanao, sellers quoted ₱5,450 to 6,100 per 100kg, while buyer bids ranged from ₱4,750 to 6,000. Mati and Davao recorded the highest prices at ₱5,525. Although this rebound benefits farmers’ earnings, its sustainability depends on mill purchases and export activity, as downstream oil buyers remain cautious.

Container freight

Drewry’s World Container Index dropped 1% to $4,473 per 40ft container. For Far East–Europe trade, the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate decreased by 3% to $4,287, and Shanghai–Genoa fell 2% to $4,866.

Operational risks are still high: vessel waiting times in Shanghai rose to 96 hours from 35 hours.

Drewry predicts rates will remain mostly stable, but coconut exporters should book early and anticipate possible rollovers and delayed connections.

Broader edible oils outlook

Nearest-forward coconut oil was priced $51.30 per metric ton lower than palm kernel oil but $405.82 higher than palm oil. The strength in palm and soybean markets may offer some support to lauric oils, especially as Indian festive demand, energy markets, and weather concerns influence forward purchasing. Nonetheless, USDA forecasts a record US soybean crop for 2026/27, which could counterbalance an ongoing rally in oilseed prices.

A note on Rotterdam coconut oil prices

The Rotterdam market is now used relatively infrequently for physical coconut oil trading. A substantial proportion of international business is conducted privately between Philippine millers, major commodity traders and industrial buyers and is therefore not visible in published market data.

Consequently, a quiet Rotterdam market should not be interpreted as an absence of underlying business. We continue to report these prices because they remain one of the few transparent international reference points available, alongside our own market intelligence and direct trading activity.