Coconut Market Update Monday 7th September 2026

The coconut market is starting to show a more notable trend. While desiccated coconut stays fairly steady, coconut oil prices have risen, and the forward curve now indicates a clear premium for early-2027 supply. Meanwhile, Philippine production has improved; however, export volumes and local raw-material prices indicate that the supply situation may be less favorable than the overall crop figures suggest.

Desiccated Coconut – stable prices, but replacement costs rising

Philippine desiccated coconut averaged 136¢/lb FOB in UCAP’s latest weekly data, up from 132.83¢/lb the previous week, but still below the August 2025 high of 168.67¢/lb.

The overall quoted range remains steady at 109–190¢/lb FOB for the 29th consecutive week. Notably, domestic Manila DC prices rose again to ₱5,562–5,871 per 100lb bag, and husked-nut prices in Southern Tagalog increased to ₱9,500–10,500/MT, indicating that while export prices are still subdued, processors are facing higher replacement costs.

Volumes also merit attention: July exports of Philippine DC totalled 14,384 MT, down 17.1% from July 2025’s 17,361 MT, yet 8.1% higher than the January–June average of 13,304 MT. Year-to-date exports for January–July reached 94,209 MT, slightly above last year’s 93,386 MT.

Coconut Oil – the forward curve is already charging for 2027 risk

Oil activity has increased recently. UCAP’s latest weekly assessment reports the nearest-forward Rotterdam CNO at an average of US$2,077.20/MT CIF, rising US$114.50/MT week-on-week from US$1,962.70. Sellers ended the week quoting prices around US$2,047.50–2,072.50/MT, depending on the position.

The forward oil curve is already pricing in 2027 risk, with February–March offers approximately 7% above the recent nearby average. This indicates that although near-term physical availability isn’t particularly tight, sellers are increasingly hesitant to carry current prices into 2027.

Philippine copra prices support this cautious outlook. PCA’s survey on 2 September shows average millgate copra at ₱51.21/kg, up from ₱50.08 a month earlier, while farmgate prices rose from ₱38.58 to ₱40.79/kg. Both remain well below last year’s levels, but the recent trend points upward. Meanwhile, European CNO was quoted at US$2,075/MT CIF on the same day.

Philippine Coconut Production – recovery? But don’t confuse recovery with abundance

Philippine coconut production reached approximately 3.45 million MT in Q2 2026, around 2.4% higher year-on-year. That recovery helps explain why nearby CNO prices have fallen from 2025 levels.

However, exports provide a more nuanced picture. UCAP estimates July coconut-oil exports at 78,234 MT, 4.6% below July 2025 and 30.4% below the January–June monthly average. January–July CNO exports nevertheless reached 752,340 MT versus 723,501 MT last year.

The key question is therefore not today’s availability, but what replacement supply will cost for Q1/Q2 2027.

Freight – Europe gets some relief

Asia–Europe container freight moved decisively lower last week. Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam rate fell 5% to US$4,092/40ft, while Shanghai–Genoa dropped 10% to US$4,368. Drewry expects further modest easing as Asia–Europe capacity increases and demand soften. Drewry

For European coconut buyers, the combination is interesting: DC remains comparatively cheap, freight is easing, but the CNO forward curve is beginning to price supply risk. That argues for looking carefully at staged 2027 coverage while nearby markets remain relatively well supplied.