Coocnut Market Update 23erd September – Super Typhoon Ragasa Update

Super Typhoon Ragasa Update

Super Typhoon Ragasa, the most powerful storm to hit the Philippines in 2025, struck the northern parts of the country with devastating winds exceeding 175 km/h and torrential rain, resulting in at least three fatalities, thousands of displaced residents, and significant destruction to homes and public infrastructure.

In major coconut-producing regions such as Cagayan and the Babuyan Islands, substantial damage to coconut trees was observed, with eyewitness reports noting that powerful winds snapped or uprooted much of the coconut crop

The impact of Super Typhoon Ragasa compounds the ongoing difficulties faced by the Philippine coconut industry, which has already seen a 20% drop in production this year due to consecutive typhoons and the effects of last year’s El Niño drought.

This latest storm is expected to worsen supply shortages and price volatility, as damaged coconut palms can take years to fully recover, affecting not only domestic producers but also global buyers who rely on Philippine coconut products

The government and the Philippine Coconut Authority have initiated emergency consultations and long-term replanting efforts, but the sector remains highly exposed to increasingly intense typhoons driven by climate change.

The Philippine coconut industry has exhibited significant price variations across key products this September, reflecting shifting international and domestic market conditions. For the two weeks ending 13 September 2025, international desiccated coconut prices experienced a notable rise following a lengthy period of stability.

The market prior to the typhoon was as follows

The FOB price range for sellers (USA, Europe, and Others) increased to $ 147.00 – $ 190.00/lb. for the week ending 13 September, compared to the $145.00 to $180.00 ¢/lb. range maintained over the three previous weeks.

Conversely, the domestic market for desiccated coconut in Manila saw prices decline slightly, settling at a range of P5,130 to P5,416 per 100-pound bag for the week ending September 13, down from P5,151 to P5,437 the week prior. This domestic easing occurred despite the substantial rise in international asking prices.

Coconut Oil

The Coconut Oil (CNO) market in Rotterdam remained largely quiet and untraded, with little buying support throughout the period. Despite this lack of interest, nearest forward shipment prices registered minor gains. For the week ending September 6, CNO increased by $3.75 to reach $2,589.10/MT CIF. The following week, the price rose marginally by another $0.60 to $2,589.70/MT CIF.

However, forward positions generally trended lower. A notable trend was the volatile relationship between CNO and Palm Kernel Oil (PKO); the price premium of CNO over PKO narrowed significantly from $297.09/MT to $211.93/MT in the first week of reporting, then slightly rebounded to an average of $232.17/MT in the second week. Additionally, CNO continued to trade at a discount against PKO in far forward positions into early 2026.

The Philippine domestic coconut oil market, however, remained notably steady, showing an upward trend across both Crude and RBD varieties (excluding 12% VAT). Crude Coconut Oil sellers closed the week ending September 6 at P144.50 – P149.00 per kilo, up from the previous week. By the week ending September 13, crude CNO offers rose further, settling at P146 – P151 per kilo. Similarly, RBD Coconut Oil offers increased gradually; sellers closed the week ending September 6 at P151.50 – P153.50 per kilo, and continued to climb to end the week ending September 13 at P155.80 – P158.00 per kilo. In both weeks, buyers remained cautious or stayed on the sidelines.

The strong domestic price environment occurs as the Philippines—a leading global exporter of coconut products, especially coconut oil—prepares to host the World Coconut Congress. Coconut oil alone represented $2.2 billion of the country’s total coconut exports of $2.98

billion in 2024, underscoring its position as the industry’s main driver. Although export volumes for coconut oil in September 2025 (applied) showed significant year-on-year declines compared to September 2024 (actual), the steady upward trend in local prices for both crude and refined coconut oil indicates persistent domestic demand or limited internal supply supporting higher prices.

Container Shipping

Spot rates from Asia to North Europe continue to decline: Drewry’s latest World Container Index assessment (18 Sep 2025) shows Shanghai–Rotterdam at $1,910 per FEU, down 11% week-on-week, with Drewry highlighting oversupply, weak demand, and increased blank sailings ahead of China’s Golden Week as key drivers—and indicating further declines are probable. The composite WCI also fell 6% to $1,913 per 40ft, emphasising broad market weakness. For comparison, Shanghai–Rotterdam was about $2,385/FEU in early September before the recent drop, despite reports of European port delays.

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Note:

The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for their market forecasts, as it is its only available resource, which we also pass on as part of our many information sources – we also do not have access to private trades other than our own.