Market Update 18th March 2025

Coconut Oil Prices Reach New Highs

Coconut oil prices have surged again, with CIF Rotterdam prices now ranging from $2,147.50 to $2,375 per metric ton. This increase is attributed to a strong rally caused by a tight supply of copra. Prices have risen due to higher demand in both the food and industrial sectors and growing concerns about limited coconut production. Additionally, the price premium of coconut oil over palm kernel oil has significantly widened, currently standing at $388 per metric ton, which marks the most substantial gap observed in recent months.

Desiccated Coconut Prices Show Strength in Export Markets

The export price range for desiccated coconut has increased to $1.20 to $1.75 per pound FOB, reflecting steady demand from key markets such as the USA and Europe. In contrast, domestic prices in Manila have slightly declined to PHP 5,179–5,467 per 100-pound bag, although the long-term trend remains stable.

Shipping Prices

The Drewry WCI composite index decreased by 7%, reaching $2,368 per 40ft container. This figure is 77% lower than the pandemic peak of $10,377, which occurred in September 2021 and marks the lowest level since January 2024. However, it is still 67% higher than the average of $1,420 recorded in 2019, before the pandemic.

Overall

We are noticing many more developments in 2025 compared to 2024, particularly regarding supply and shipping. However, global uncertainties related to the potential knock-on effects of U.S. trade tariffs could impact the production and supply of certain goods entering and leaving the USA. Depending on the president’s decisions, this may lead to either excess supply or shortages. We are still seeing reports from some news outlets suggesting that El Niño conditions may develop in the second half of 2025.