Market Update 29th November 2021

The latest variation of the COVID virus, Omicron B, has created uncertainty in the market once more. Will demand fall as countries close again? Or will demand rise as we consume more comfort food.

We simply don’t know, but edible oils dipped Friday but have risen again today (Monday 29^thNovember 2021) as coconut oil hovers under the $2,000 mark.

We have three weeks of trading left before the holidays, and everyone is very nervous at the moment. The reality is that if we are short, you should be looking to book sooner rather than later to protect yourself in case the market does climb further.

Here at TM Duché, we believe that container prices will stay stubbornly high, as carriers reap the benefits of bigger profits with boards and shareholders reluctant to drop prices. There was talk of the French government speaking to carriers to force shipping costs down, but nothing seems to have happened since the initial news.

It is unclear if a drop in Asian container spot rates will happen after February 2022’s Chinese New Year, but this could add to the risk of signing long-term contracts.

But there is potentially better news on future rates for shippers regarding the supply/demand outlook. At least one analyst predicting rates will eventually fall back to 2019 levels, but we remain sceptical.

Port congestion is still a significant issue around the globe. It’s now headline news in the US and on late-night talk shows, one headline reading “111 ships waiting outside LA ports”, with delays around Europe rising during the holiday season, it is another thing we believe will not go away in 2022.

In the Philippines, production remains good, with no disruptions so far due to weather, it is the middle of the Typhoon season, but it is also a La Nina weather year which is affecting Southeast Asia with heavy rains in certain areas, which are affecting yields.

Q1 2022 is filling up and is mostly full, with minimal availability. Raw Material prices are still at record levels.

Overall, we expect that raw material prices to remain high due to demand and shipping prices to stay at similar levels