Typhoon Tino Update and Coconut Market News 4th November 2025

Typhoon Tino Update

Typhoon Tino (internally known as Kalmaegi) struck the Central Philippines, making landfall over Silago, Southern Leyte, late on November 3, 2025, and continued to affect Cebu, Negros, and Panay on November 4, 2025. The storm brought winds of up to 155 km/h and gusts up to 185 km/h, causing widespread flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage. Mass evacuations and power outages were reported, and at least two deaths have been confirmed so far.

The coconut-producing areas of Southern Leyte, Cebu, and Eastern Samar were severely affected, with fallen trees and power outages disrupting agriculture and logistics. Specific damage estimates to the coconut industry are still being gathered, and while the storm is expected to have a significant impact, detailed reports on price fluctuations and export delays are not yet available

The storm’s heavy rains exceeded monthly averages, triggering flash floods and landslides, and the coconut industry—already weakened by previous storms and El Niño is likely to face further strain, but the full extent of the damage is still being assessed(gulfnews.com)

Market Update

The desiccated coconut export market remained stable, with sellers’ prices holding steady at 147-190¢/lb FOB across the USA, Europe, and other regions for the eighth consecutive week, unchanged from last week’s average of 172.33¢/lb FOB. Locally, however, the price range slightly increased to P5,254-5,546 per 100-lb bag for the week ending October 25, 2025.

Meanwhile, the international coconut oil market in Rotterdam saw trading at $2,530/MT CIF at the start of the week, but quickly tapered off, with prices generally declining to $2,295-2,500/MT CIF, and the average sellers’ price in Europe falling by $39 to $2,498.95/MT CIF for the same period.

Domestically, the millgate price for Crude Coconut Oil (CNO), VAT included, on October 30, 2025, ranged from P157.92 to P168.00 per kilogram. The previous week’s CNO prices, excluding VAT, increased from P131-140 to P140-150 per kilo, with the average rising by P1.70 to P137.20. RBD Coconut Oil prices slightly declined midweek and closed lower at P153.50-155.50 per kilo, compared to last week’s P153.50-156.00, with a minor average decrease of P0.15 to P154.60.

The daily millgate price for RBD CNO (cooking oil, VAT included) ranged from P171.92 to P174.16 per kilo. Buyers remained inactive for both crude and RBD coconut oils domestically during the week. In regional markets, copra prices showed mixed movements. Quezon experienced price increases, with seller offers rising P100 to P7,550-7,700 per 100 kilos, and buyer bids also up P100 to P7,450-7,600. Conversely, Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao saw prices initially decline from P7,650-7,900 last week to P7,250-7,700.

Container Shipping Update

Asia–North Europe spot rates increased slightly toward the end of October. Drewry’s Shanghai to Rotterdam route was priced at $1,795 per 40-ft (FEU) for the week of October 30, 2025, representing a 3% weekly increase as carriers implemented FAK rate hikes before November 1.

The overall WCI rose by 4% to $1,822 per FEU, marking three consecutive weekly gains. However, Drewry maintains a cautious outlook due to weakening supply and demand in the upcoming quarters. For coconut shipments into Rotterdam, freight costs remain below mid-year peaks but are slightly higher into early November.

Note:

The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.