Will trade truce lead to less volatile palm and coconut oil?

As we head into the holidays everyone is looking where edible oils will head during first half of 2019. The trade truce between US and China seems to be working. China made their first purchase of US Soya in 6 months this week so boosting prices. Also Crude has been firmer as OPEC reduces supply and again on that trade war truce. But OPEC is also predicting lower crude oil demand next year as they see economic turbulence ahead next year. Palm oil reported highest stockpiles in 20 years this month which has done little to boost prices. But supply is supposed to ease but the question now is will demand for 2019 keep pace or fall away so keeping prices weaker. Coconut oil seems to have come through the typhoon season without major disruption. Supply has been very good but will a spring ‘El Nino’ slow crops down? High prices during 2017 helped ease back demand for coconut but wonder if lower prices we have seen during 2018 might help demand pick up again next year.

Desiccated prices have been weak for the last quarter now. Good supply from all origins even oversupply has seen some very low offers. Some shippers order books for 2019 are weak which is doing little to boost prices at the moment. There is little doubt that prices are probably at the bottom but it could be a little while before we see much of a pick up. Will dry weather during first quarter push up prices and when?


For now can we wish everyone a happy holidays and a successfully 2019

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