El Niño Climate Alert & Market Impact Analysis
May 13, 2026
⚠ ELEVATED SUPPLY RISK: Super El Niño Developing PAGASA has placed the probability of a…
I had thought of posting something last week but I wanted to see how this weeks trade negotiations between the US and China went and also see if there was any progress on Brexit. So negotiations between US and China seem to be going well which is easing the markets quite a bit. Crude oil has risen on this news which will in turn put more pressure on edible oils. Also its helping to ease some of the turmoil from soya market as US continues to ship more to China. The current US shutdown though could start to unnerve the markets if a solution does not happen soon. For now though edible oils edge slightly higher with the market confidence but lack any meaningful change. With no major answers on Brexit so don’t think i can comment. Will possible German rescission or Italian monetary issues sway the progress? Coconut oil starts the year pretty much where it left off as well. Will possible dry conditions in Asia during first quarter start to impact prices?
Desiccated prices remain weak as the edible oil market stays level. The big issue really is that major shippers are about as low as overheads will allow. But they are chasing slightly less business then in 2017/18. So we are seeing occasional one of cheap deal as shippers look to fill gaps in production. Waiting to rainfall figures for the Philippines for end 2018 to see if quieter typhoon season saw less rainfall?
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May 13, 2026
⚠ ELEVATED SUPPLY RISK: Super El Niño Developing PAGASA has placed the probability of a…
May 11, 2026
Strait of Hormuz, energy and edible oils. Markets are still reflecting a geopolitical risk premium…
May 5, 2026
PHILIPPINE ENERGY CRISIS: THE RIPPLE EFFECT ON COCONUT MARKETS The Philippines has been navigating a…
April 29, 2026
Philippines: Copra and Coconut Oil—cash market firms, but still well below last year Philippine copra…
April 22, 2026
Fallout from the War in Iran The Strait of Hormuz closure, now in its eighth…
April 8, 2026
Geopolitics: ceasefire, but the fuel aftershock remains A crucial geopolitical event occurred overnight on April…
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