Coconut Market Update – 2 November 2026

Coconut oil prices have started to recover following several weeks of weakness, with European values rising to approximately US$2,028 per metric tonne CIF, an increase of around 1% on the previous week. Desiccated coconut (DC) export quotations remain unchanged at 109–190 US cents/lb FOB, although Philippine domestic prices continue to edge higher. Copra prices have also rebounded after three weeks of declines, suggesting some renewed firmness in raw material costs. More significantly, reported Philippine desiccated coconut exports for January–June were 46.6% below the corresponding period in 2025; is this supply availability or weakening demand? Meanwhile, Drewry’s container shipping index has fallen 3% globally, although freight rates from Asia to Europe remain under upward pressure.

Desiccated Coconut – Export Prices Hold, but Supply Questions Remain

International DC quotations remain unchanged at 109–190 US cents/lb FOB, a range that has now persisted for 37 consecutive weeks.

The average indicative export quotation remains approximately 135.17 US cents/lb FOB, compared with 172.33 cents/lb in October 2025.

Domestic prices have moved higher, with Philippine sellers quoting ₱5,688–6,004 per 100 lb bag, compared with ₱5,661–5,975 the previous week.

Of particular concern is Philippine export performance. UCAP reports 75,522 MT of desiccated coconut exports for January–June 2026, compared with 141,488 MT for the corresponding period in 2025, a decline of 46.6%.

Although international quotations remain stable, buyers should continue monitoring factory availability and production capacity. A prolonged reduction in export volumes could eventually influence forward prices, particularly if demand strengthens.

Coconut Oil – Early Signs of Price Recovery

The European coconut oil market has shown signs of stabilisation, with average nearby forward offers increasing from US$2,006.35 to US$2,027.95/MT CIF.

Trading remains relatively quiet, but forward prices suggest continued firmness into 2027. Rotterdam sellers are quoting approximately US$2,043–2,073/MT CIF for December 2026 through April 2027, with March/April at the upper end of the range.

A May/June 2027 trade was also reported at US$2,035/MT CIF.

The Philippine Coconut Authority’s latest daily assessment on 28 October places coconut oil at US$2,040/MT CIF Europe.

With buyers remaining cautious, the immediate market is relatively balanced. However, the modest recovery in prices and firmer underlying copra costs suggest that the recent downward trend may be losing momentum.

Copra – Prices Rebound After Three Weeks of Declines

Philippine copra prices have recovered, with the national average millgate price reaching ₱50.59/kg on 28 October, compared with ₱49.52/kg a week earlier.

Farmgate prices averaged ₱38.95/kg, compared with ₱37.52/kg a week earlier.

In Southern Mindanao, copra prices remain particularly firm, with Davao-region millgate prices reaching ₱54.75/kg.

However, despite this recent recovery, copra remains substantially cheaper than a year ago, when the national millgate average was ₱73.21/kg.

This suggests that the market is recovering from recent lows rather than entering a sustained price surge.

Container Shipping – Asia to Europe Rates Edge Higher

Despite an overall decline in global container freight rates, Asia–Europe shipping costs remain firm.

According to Drewry’s World Container Index, published on 29 October:

• Global index: US$4,429 per 40ft container, down 3%.
• Shanghai to Rotterdam: US$3,686 per 40ft container, up 1%.
• Shanghai to Genoa: US$4,151 per 40ft container, broadly unchanged.

Shipping lines are attempting to introduce higher Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates for November, although additional capacity and relatively weak demand could limit their success.

Drewry reports that four blank sailings have been announced for the coming week on Asia–Europe routes, compared with eight the previous week.

For European coconut importers, freight remains an important component of landed costs. Although these rates are useful benchmarks, actual freight rates from Philippine and Indonesian ports will vary according to the routing, shipping line and applicable surcharges.

Wider Edible Oils Market – Demand Remains Strong

US coconut oil imports increased significantly in August, reaching 39,000 MT, a rise of 48.3% compared with the previous year.

Interestingly, Indonesian coconut oil shipments to the US increased substantially, whilst Philippine volumes were slightly lower.

Meanwhile, palm oil and palm kernel oil prices have also strengthened, supported by export demand and firmer energy markets.

Coconut oil continues to command a premium over competing tropical oils, although that premium remains relatively modest.

Market Outlook – November and Beyond

The market appears to be entering a period of consolidation, with coconut oil and copra prices recovering from recent lows whilst desiccated coconut export quotations remain stable.

However, the sharp reduction in reported Philippine DC export volumes deserves close attention; this could be more to weaker demand as cost-of-living challenges begin to impact markets.

For European buyers, maintaining adequate forward stock coverage and reviewing requirements for the first half of 2027 may offer protection against potential supply disruption or renewed price increases.

The key question for the coming weeks is whether improving raw material prices and reduced DC exports represent a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a more sustained tightening of supply.

A note on Rotterdam coconut oil prices

The Rotterdam market is now used relatively infrequently for physical coconut oil trading. A substantial proportion of international business is conducted privately between Philippine millers, major commodity traders and industrial buyers and is therefore not visible in published market data.

Consequently, a quiet Rotterdam market should not be interpreted as an absence of underlying business. We continue to report these prices because they remain one of the few transparent international reference points available, alongside our own market intelligence and direct trading activity.