Coconut Industry Market Update – 11th November 2024

Price Trends and Market Dynamics

During the first week of November, the coconut oil market in Rotterdam showed stronger pricing trends, reflecting broader improvements in the vegetable oils market. Sellers initially quoted prices at $1,730 to $1,750 per metric ton (MT) cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) for positions extending from November through early 2025. By the end of the week, prices had risen to $1,800 per MT CIF. Although buyer activity was limited, the coconut oil market continues to be influenced by the overall vegetable oil sector gains, indicating sustained demand pressures.

Palm kernel oil prices experienced a notable increase, climbing from $1,598 to $1,709 per metric ton (MT) CIF. This sharp rise significantly reduced the price premium that coconut oil typically enjoys. The price gap between coconut oil and palm kernel oil has narrowed to just $43.50 per MT, highlighting increased competition in the tropical oils market. Furthermore, desiccated coconut export prices have risen to between 80 and 130 cents per pound (lb) FOB, marking the end of a long period of price stability at the lower range.

Philippine Coconut Export Performance

In October, coconut oil exports reached 73,350 metric tons (MT), a 29.2% decline from the same month last year.

Despite the decrease in volume, the export value increased by 17%, attributed to higher market prices. Additionally, copra meal exports surged by 77.6%, indicating robust demand.

Global Market Developments and Trade Updates

The United States reported a significant increase in lauric oil imports, with coconut oil imports rising by 78.4% year-on-year to 51,200 MT in August. The Philippines was the leading supplier, contributing 55.4% of US imports. This strong demand highlights the continuing preference for coconut oil in the US market, driven by its versatility and rising interest in plant-based products.

Outlook and Industry Perspective

The tropical oils market is expected to remain volatile as global demand and supply dynamics continue to shift. The firming of coconut oil prices alongside a narrowing spread against palm kernel oil signals tightening competition. Industry stakeholders must closely monitor these trends, especially as key importing countries adjust their sourcing strategies to navigate fluctuating prices and consumer preferences.

The local coconut product markets in the Philippines will likely remain buoyant, supported by rising domestic and international prices. However, the industry must brace for potential supply constraints and continue efforts to expand value-added product offerings to capture new market opportunities.