Coconut Market Update 14th Jan 2026

Desiccated Coconut: Firm Prices and Strong Export Demand

Desiccated coconut (DC) continues to excel within the coconut industry. Export prices have remained relatively stable, trading in the 147–190 US cents per pound FOB range for a prolonged period. This marks a significant rise since early 2025 and indicates strong demand from Europe, North America, and an expanding array of emerging markets.

Trade data further highlights Europe’s significance, with the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, and France as major destinations. Limited raw material availability, combined with consistent demand from bakery, confectionery, and plant-based food manufacturers, suggests that DC prices are likely to stay strong into 2026, despite ongoing volatility in broader edible oil markets.

Coconut Oil: Weak Close to 2025, Cautious Start to 2026

The coconut oil market concluded 2025 on a softer note, reflecting a broader slowdown in the global vegetable oils sector. In Rotterdam, prices for coconut oil gradually declined in the final weeks of the year, with CIF rates typically ranging from USD 2,180 to USD 2,240 per tonne for nearby contracts. Although this is a significant drop from the peak levels of early 2025, prices are still relatively high compared to last year’s opening prices, indicating persistent tightness in actual supply.

The ongoing weakness in palm oil and palm kernel oil has negatively impacted coconut oil sentiment. Although the usual premium of coconut oil over palm kernel oil has narrowed, it still remains historically high. This indicates that further declines may be limited, especially as European demand stays strong through food, oleochemical, and specialty fat uses.

Into 2026, the market appears set for a period of consolidation rather than a sharp correction, with price direction likely dictated by movements in competing oils and energy markets.

Copra: Prices Easing After a Volatile Year

Domestic copra prices in the Philippines continued to decline at the start of 2026. Average millgate prices dropped to about PHP 63–64 per kg, down from December, with farmgate prices falling to the low PHP 50s per kg. This decrease is due to seasonal trends, lower year-end trading activity, and the impact of decreasing international coconut oil prices.

However, despite recent declines, copra values are still higher than early-2025 levels, indicating that higher input costs are now more deeply integrated into the market. Weather plays a significant role, with rainfall issues and uneven yields across regions limiting supply growth. This suggests that copra prices might stabilise once post-holiday demand resumes to normal levels.

The current upward trend is shaped by several critical factors:

• Supply Tightness: Malaysian production in December fell by 5.5% (to 1.83 million tonnes). Analysts expect production to remain seasonally low through January due to tree stress and potential disruptions to monsoon rains in Peninsular Malaysia.
• Upcoming Festivals: Demand is surging as major buyers like India and China restock inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year and the start of Ramadan in February.
• Export Surge: Export data for the first ten days of January shows a massive jump—estimated between 17.7% and 29.2% higher than December levels.
• External Markets: Palm oil is tracking gains in Chicago soybean oil. When rival oils become more expensive, palm oil becomes a more attractive “cheaper” alternative, driving up its price.
• Policy Watch: The market is closely watching Indonesia’s B40/B50 biodiesel mandate. While Indonesia currently sticks to B40, any move toward B50 (50% palm oil blend) later this year is expected to tighten global supply significantly.

Wider Edible Oils Context

The global edible oils market faces significant uncertainty as it moves into 2026. Changes in energy markets, including political upheavals in key oil-producing regions such as Venezuela, may affect biofuel prices and, consequently, vegetable oil demand. For coconut oil and related products, the key drivers remain supply constraints, steady food demand, and the Philippines’ vital role in the international coconut trade. Overall, although price fluctuations are expected to continue, coconut oil, copra, and desiccated coconut are likely to remain relatively strong compared to other edible oils as 2026 progresses.

Container Shipping: Asia to Europe Cost Environment

Container freight rates from Asia to Europe stabilised towards the end of 2025 after a volatile year. According to Drewry’s World Container Index, rates on the Asia–North Europe route, including Rotterdam, settled in the USD 2,200–2,600 per 40ft container range by year-end. This represents a significant normalisation from the extremes seen earlier in the decade, though costs remain well above pre-2020 averages.

For coconut products shipped from the Philippines, freight is no longer the dominant shock factor it once was, but it remains a meaningful component of landed cost. Looking into 2026, carrier capacity management, geopolitical risk and fuel prices will continue to influence freight levels, with modest seasonal increases likely around peak shipping periods.