Coconut & Edible Oils Market Newsletter 11th May 2026

Strait of Hormuz, energy and edible oils.

Markets are still reflecting a geopolitical risk premium due to uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This influences crude oil and biofuel demand signals and has supported palm oil prices, even as coconut oil remains behind. UCAP clearly connects stronger palm oil sentiment to Hormuz-related uncertainties, leading to a more competitive palm oil market (higher CPO/PKO). This can help stabilise demand for laurics, provided coconut’s supply chain—copra and processing—does not decline too sharply.

Philippines energy & local fuel prices.

Higher global energy volatility also affects local markets. Recent reports show that the Philippines is actively managing its power price exposure due to increased LNG costs and shipping risks, including temporary interventions in wholesale electricity prices. Downstream, pump prices in early May remain high compared to historical levels, with both diesel and gasoline prices elevated. This keeps logistics and drying/processing costs vulnerable to any further crude oil-driven increases.

Philippine coconut markets

Are experienced a significant decline this week, primarily due to a sharp drop in copra prices and a spillover effect leading to lower domestic coconut oil values.

UCAP reports that copra prices “collapsed” across major sourcing areas: in Quezon, offers declined to ₱5,950–7,000 per 100 kg (bids ranged from ₱5,850 to ₱6,900), while in Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao, offers decreased to ₱6,650–7,200 per 100 kg (with bids as low as ₱5,450).

Based on millgate prices, PCA’s daily data shows an average of ₱58.79 per kg (a week-on-week decrease), and farmgate prices averaged ₱46.94 per kg, indicating continued pressure on farm incomes despite mills’ efforts to manage their inventories.

Desiccated Coconut

Export Desiccated Coconut pricing remains steady for a 12th straight week at 109–190¢/lb FOB (all major destinations). Locally, Manila Desiccated Coconut quotations firmed further to ₱5,510–5,816 per 100-lb bag, consistent with tight nearby availability and firm conversion economics for processors who are well covered on copra.

Coconut Oil

Globally, it remains the weakest link among vegetable oils, with quiet trading in Rotterdam and sellers settling around $2,220–2,250/MT CIF for nearby contracts. The nearest-forward UCAP reference dropped to $2,263/MT CIF. Domestically, crude coconut oil prices declined to ₱110–135/kg, while RBD coconut oil decreased to ₱137–144/kg (excluding VAT).

The main concern is whether the current drop in copra prices continues; if it does, domestic oil prices may remain high even if global energy and freight costs stay supportive.

Shipping: Far East to Europe (Drewry WCI).

Container markets recovered after three weeks of declines. Drewry’s World Container Index increased to $2,286 per 40ft container, while routes between Asia and Europe remained mostly stable: Shanghai–Rotterdam at $2,170/40ft and Shanghai–Genoa at $3,075/40ft. Carriers indicate higher FAK levels for mid-May, but weak demand and excess capacity continue to limit significant gains. For Philippine coconut exporters to Europe, the current outlook is that rates are not collapsing but remain manageable compared to 2024 spikes—expect volatility around surcharge updates.

Other veg oil highlights

 Palm oil markets are staying supported by biodiesel policies, such as Malaysia’s push for higher blends.

Meanwhile, soybean oil is gaining strength due to energy market influences. Overall, the coconut complex is currently more affected by domestic copra factors than by the global vegoil trends—keep an eye on copra availability, mill purchasing habits, and export coverage into Europe and the US.

Note:

The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.