Coconut Market Weekly News March 24th 2026

The coconut market continued its upward trajectory this week, driven primarily by external macro forces, most notably the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz has materially lifted crude oil prices, feeding directly into the broader vegetable oil market through biofuel linkages and speculative flows.

Coconut Oil – Energy Linkages Drive Rally

Coconut oil prices continued to rise, with CIF Rotterdam quotes settling between USD 2,340 and 2,427 per metric ton. The increase is driven not only by improved supply-demand fundamentals but also by spillover effects from other oils.

As noted by the UCAP bulletin, soybean and palm oil markets surged higher due to rising crude oil prices, reinforcing the link between energy and agricultural markets.

The premium of coconut oil over palm kernel oil has shrunk significantly to below USD 100 per MT in nearby contracts, down from over USD 200 per MT in previous weeks. This shift indicates that coconut oil is increasingly integrated into the wider vegetable oil market rather than remaining a niche premium product.

Domestically, crude coconut oil prices have risen to PHP 133.50–144 per kilogram, reflecting strong export parity and tight raw material supplies.

Desiccated Coconut – Stable but Firm

Desiccated coconut prices remain steady at 109–190 cents per pound FOB, holding this range for five consecutive weeks. Although there was no change week-on-week, the overall market is characterised by historically high prices, supported by lower global export volumes but significantly higher unit values.

The Philippines continues to lead global supply with approximately 53% market share, although exports from major producers—the Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka—slightly decreased in 2025. Importantly, export revenues increased due to strong prices, underscoring the value-driven nature of the current market.

Copra – Strong Rebound but Signs of Volatility

Philippine copra prices saw a significant week-on-week increase, with Quezon millgate prices reaching PHP 7,550–7,800 per 100kg.

This marks a strong rebound from January’s lows, when prices were around PHP 62–64/kg (approximately PHP 6,200–6,400 per 100kg).

However, recent PCA daily data indicate some short-term softening, with average millgate prices dropping to PHP 67.94/kg from over PHP 70/kg the previous week, suggesting early volatility amid rapid gains.

The main driver remains reduced supply combined with high demand from export markets and the domestic biodiesel sector. Nevertheless, policy uncertainty regarding the biofuel mandate continues to affect market sentiment.

The Philippine Coconut Authority’s firm opposition to suspending the mandate highlights its importance in maintaining coconut oil demand.

Middle East Conflict – Key Market Implications

The ongoing conflict is now the central macro driver across edible oils:

• Crude oil strength is directly lifting biofuel-linked vegetable oils (soy, palm, coconut)
• Freight and insurance risks are rising, especially for shipments transiting via Middle Eastern routes
• Market volatility has increased, with sharp intra-week corrections tied to geopolitical headline

The closure risk around Hormuz is particularly significant, as it influences both energy markets and shipping lanes, amplifying price transmission across commodities.

Container Freight – Upward Pressure Emerging

Container markets are beginning to reflect these disruptions. While not yet at peak crisis levels, Drewry’s World Container Index indicates firming rates on Asia–Europe routes, driven by longer routing, war risk premiums, and capacity dislocations.

For coconut exports from the Philippines, this translates into higher landed costs in Europe and the US, potentially reinforcing the strength of CIF prices even if FOB values stabilise.

Outlook

The market remains firmly bullish in the short term, with coconut oil increasingly behaving as an energy-linked commodity. Key risks to monitor include:

• Further escalation in the Middle East
• Policy shifts in Philippine biofuels
• Supply response from Indonesia and Sri Lanka

Absent a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, edible oil markets—including coconut oil are likely to remain elevated and volatile in the weeks ahead.

Note: The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.