Coconut Oils Market Update 5th May 2026

PHILIPPINE ENERGY CRISIS: THE RIPPLE EFFECT ON COCONUT MARKETS

The Philippines has been navigating a serious energy crisis since late February, triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel conflict with Iran. With 98% of its oil imported from the Middle East, the country is among the most exposed in the world to this disruption.

Diesel surpassed ₱130/litre, petrol exceeded ₱100/litre, and LNG prices tripled. President Marcos declared a state of national energy emergency as reserves fell to approximately 45 days’ supply — a move transport unions criticised as failing to address underlying structural weaknesses. A US-Iran ceasefire on 8 April brought some relief, but authorities have cautioned that prices are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels given lasting damage to regional oil infrastructure.

For coconut industry operators, the practical consequences are significant: cold-chain logistics, packaging, and milling costs are all under upward pressure, and emergency bunker surcharges from major carriers are pushing freight costs higher on shipments to Europe and North America. A US reciprocal tariff of 17–19% on Philippine goods adds a further headwind for the substantial share of coconut product volume destined for that market.

DESICCATED COCONUT

Export DC prices are unchanged for the eleventh consecutive week at 109–190 ¢/lb FOB. The domestic Manila range edged up slightly to ₱5,422–5,723 per 100-lb bag.

A positive datapoint: UCAP estimates March DC export volumes rose 5.2% year-on-year — a supportive figure against an otherwise mixed backdrop for coconut product shipments.

COCONUT OIL

Rotterdam offers drifted lower across the forward strip (April/May through Oct/Nov), consistent with a broader softening in tropical oils. Philippine refined supply remained freely offered: crude CNO at ₱120–140/kg and RBD CNO at ₱138–147/kg (VAT excl.), with buyer interest still subdued.

FOSFA CIF Rotterdam settlements have recently marked CNO around the low-$2,3xx/MT range in late April, suggesting the market is consolidating rather than trending sharply in either direction. UCAP’s Rotterdam seller range remains wide at $2,200–2,385/MT CIF for nearby and forward positions — a reflection of thin liquidity and a market still dominated by offers over firm bids.

On the demand side, UCAP data shows US lauric imports were flat year-on-year in February, though with a notable shift in composition: the Philippines remains a primary coconut oil supplier, while Indonesia dominated palm kernel oil flows. This matters because PKO availability acts as a natural ceiling on CNO price rallies when buyers switch on relative value.

COPRA: CRUSH ECONOMICS UNDER WATCH

Philippine copra values have continued to firm in key producing regions. UCAP places Quezon sellers at ₱6,950–7,200 per 100 kg (bids ₱6,850–7,100), with Visayas and Mindanao also ticking higher.

PCA’s 4 May daily snapshot records average millgate copra at ₱59.97/kg (marginally down on the day) and average farmgate at ₱47.70/kg — still well below late-2025 levels, but showing signs of stabilisation across several areas versus the prior week.

The divergence between firming copra and softer export CNO is worth monitoring closely. Unless product demand improves or meal/cake values provide compensation, processors face margin pressure in the near term.

CONTAINER FREIGHT: FAR EAST → EUROPE

Freight costs continue to ease modestly. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 1% to $2,216 per 40ft — its third consecutive weekly decline. For coconut shippers into Europe specifically:

•      Shanghai → Rotterdam: down 1% to $2,127/40ft

•      Shanghai → Genoa: down 1% to $3,039/40ft

Carriers are attempting to defend rates through blank sailings and capacity management into May. Landed costs into North Europe are softening at the margin, but schedule reliability and surcharge risk — particularly on fuel and geopolitical grounds — remain the key swing factors for total landed cost calculations.

WIDER EDIBLE OILS WATCHLIST

Palm oil remains the principal cross-market driver. Biodiesel policy ambition and weather-related supply risk can tighten expectations even when near-term seasonal production improves — keep a close eye on Indonesian and Malaysian developments.

The CNO–PKO spread continues to be the key substitution lever in the lauric complex. Any renewed tightness in PKO supply — or increased biodiesel demand pull — tends to reprice the entire lauric basket, including desiccated coconut and coconut oil.

Note:

The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.