Coconut Market Update 18th August 2026

This week, the coconut market continued to weaken, especially in coconut oil and Philippine copra. Export prices for desiccated coconut held steady, but container freight rates remained high. Meanwhile, the intensifying El Niño presents an increased risk to coconut supply in 2027.

Desiccated coconut

International quotations for the USA, Europe, and other destinations stayed steady at 109–190¢/lb FOB for the 26th straight week. UCAP’s seller average remained at 132.83¢/lb FOB, roughly US$2,929/MT before freight.

While unchanged from last week, this is below July’s average of 136.98¢/lb and about 21% lower than August 2025.

The Manila domestic market continued to weaken, with the weekly average dropping ₱57 to ₱5,634 per 100-lb bag, and closing quotes between ₱5,482 and ₱5,786.

The export range remains very broad and should not be viewed as a single market price.

Coconut oil

The international coconut oil market continued to decline. UCAP’s nearest-forward European seller average dropped by US$15 to US$2,015/MT CIF. Closing offers ranged from about US$2,000 for August/September shipments to US$1,900 for early 2027 positions.

Buying support remained limited, with interest around US$1,800/MT CIF for September/October through November/December.

The Philippine Coconut Authority’s daily report for 14 August showed European coconut oil at US$1,840/MT CIF, indicating continued weakness after the UCAP weekly period. T

he gap between coconut oil and palm kernel oil has narrowed significantly, with the nearest coconut oil position only US$15/MT below palm kernel oil, compared to a wider discount previously.

Domestic Philippine prices were mostly steady or slightly lower, with weekly crude coconut oil at ₱101.20/kg excluding VAT and RBD coconut oil at ₱122.50/kg.

Philippine Copra

PCA’s national average millgate copra price was ₱47.53/kg on 14 August, compared with ₱50.97/kg in the previous week’s comparison and ₱73.21/kg a year ago.

The national farmgate average declined to ₱37.76/kg from ₱40.30/kg the previous week. Prices continue to vary considerably between regions, with millgate indications ranging from ₱40/kg in MIMAROPA to ₱53/kg in Region VII.

Lower copra and coconut oil values are reducing immediate cost pressure for processors. However, national averages can conceal tighter availability around individual mills and production areas.

Container Shipping

Drewry’s World Container Index rose 1% to US$4,339 per 40-ft container on 13 August, marking its second consecutive weekly gain. The recent increase was mainly driven by Transpacific routes rather than Asia–Europe.

The Shanghai–New York route jumped 10%, and Shanghai–Los Angeles increased 6%, as carriers adjusted capacity through blank sailings.

For European shipments, our previous update reported the Shanghai–Rotterdam benchmark at US$4,653 per 40-ft container on 6 August, remaining unchanged that week. This indicates relatively stable European conditions rather than a sharp rise.

Despite this, freight costs are still high enough to significantly impact the landed cost of desiccated coconut. Shanghai benchmarks should be used as a guide, since actual Philippines–Europe rates vary depending on port, carrier, trans-shipment, and surcharges.El Niño update

The El Niño outlook has strengthened materially.

NOAA’s 13 August assessment now indicates a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026–27. NOAA also assigns a 69% probability that the October–December period reaches a historic-strength threshold.

El Niño generally increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, dry spells and drought across the Philippines. However, individual periods of heavy rainfall can still occur because of the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones. Recent rain therefore does not remove the longer-term seasonal risk.

The effect on coconut production is unlikely to be immediate. Prolonged rainfall deficits later in 2026 could affect flowering, nut development and eventual copra weights, with the clearest supply consequences more likely to emerge during 2027.

Market Outlook

In the near term, softer coconut oil and copra prices favour strategic spot purchasing with shorter quote validity. Buyers should seek value within the published range for desiccated coconut and consider staggering cover, as relying on further price drops could be risky if El Niño impacts the 2027 crop.

For European delivery, it’s wise to compare FOB-plus-freight with CIF offers and verify origin charges before fixing prices.

Overall, the market is softer, but El Niño’s strengthening adds medium-term supply uncertainty.