Coconut Industry Newsletter 5th October 2026

Sustainable Coconut Roundtable in Bali

We are currently at the Sustainable Coconut Roundtable 2026 in Bali this week its runs from 5^th to the 9th October. This year’s theme is “Coalitions, Capital, and Action for the Future of Coconut.”  So Cameron and Dave may be later to respond to emails and calls than normal.

Of particular interest to the Philippine industry will be the planned announcement of a new public-private collaboration between the Philippine Coconut Authority and the Sustainable Coconut Partnership. The event will also launch the partnership’s fund for responsible rejuvenation. With ageing trees, climate pressure and limited investment presenting long-term supply risks, the industry increasingly needs sustainability programmes that improve both farmer incomes and the reliability of future coconut supply.

The coconut market presented a mixed picture this week. Desiccated coconut export prices remained stable, while international coconut oil values continued to ease. Philippine origin costs, however, were firmer, highlighting the continuing difference between overseas market sentiment and local raw-material pressures.

Desiccated coconut

The Philippine export price range for desiccated coconut remained unchanged at 109–190 US cents per pound FOB. This is now the 33rd consecutive week without a change in the published range.

The representative average was also unchanged at 135.17 cents per pound, equivalent to approximately US$2,980 per metric tonne before freight. This compares with 133.46 cents in August but remains substantially below the 173.96-cent average recorded in September 2025.

In the domestic market, the average price eased slightly to ₱5,799 per 100-pound bag from ₱5,806.50 the previous week. The quoted range narrowed to ₱5,642–5,956.

Stable export prices suggest that processors are still protecting replacement values despite softer international vegetable-oil markets. May export data also showed that Philippine desiccated coconut shipments fell 8.9% year on year to 11,911 tonnes, while export revenue declined 9.2%. However, the number of destination markets rose to 45, highlighting the product’s broad international customer base.

Coconut oil

European coconut oil prices softened for another week. The average nearest-forward seller indication declined by US$10.50 to US$2,069 per tonne CIF Rotterdam. Offers finished the week around US$2,060 for October/November, US$2,043.50 for November/December and US$2,040 for December/January.

The Philippine Coconut Authority’s more recent daily assessment on 1 October placed European coconut oil at US$2,010 per tonne CIF, suggesting that the market remained under downward pressure after the UCAP weekly reporting period.

Improved copra availability and weakness in the wider palm-oil market contributed to the softer international tone. Coconut oil nevertheless moved back to a premium over palm kernel oil after PKO fell more sharply.

Prices at origin moved in the opposite direction. The UCAP weekly average for crude coconut oil increased by ₱4 to ₱113.55 per kilogram, excluding VAT, while RBD coconut oil rose by ₱4.75 to ₱120.75. By 1 October, the PCA was reporting VAT-inclusive ranges of ₱119.84–136.64 for crude oil and ₱131.60–147.28 for RBD coconut oil.

Copra prices were mixed across the Philippines. Quezon values improved, but prices weakened in parts of the Visayas and Southern Mindanao. The PCA’s national averages on 1 October were ₱52.73 per kilogram at millgate and ₱41.22 at farmgate. Both remain considerably below their year-earlier levels.

El Niño intensifies

The weather outlook has become a more important market risk. PAGASA’s latest advisory confirms that a strong El Niño is active and is expected to intensify into a very strong event, potentially persisting through the first half of 2027. NOAA similarly places the probability of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter at more than 90%.

For the Philippine coconut industry, the principal concern is an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall, dry spells and drought. September rainfall improved in some parts of the Visayas and Mindanao compared with August, but regional totals remained below September 2025 levels.

The commercial effect may not be immediate. Prolonged water stress can affect flowering, nut development and future copra availability, so any material supply impact could emerge with a delay. El Niño therefore represents an upside risk to coconut prices into 2027, particularly if dryness becomes established across important producing areas. Buyers should also remember that El Niño raises probabilities rather than guaranteeing uniform drought throughout the Philippines.

Container shipping

Drewry’s World Container Index declined by 1% this week to US$4,434 per 40-foot container.

Asia-to-Europe rates continued to soften. Shanghai-to-Rotterdam fell by 2% to US$3,399 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai-to-Genoa declined by 3% to US$3,702. The Asia-Europe market has now recorded 12 consecutive weekly declines, helped by subdued demand and additional effective capacity as more vessels return to the shorter Suez Canal route.

The picture within Asia remains firmer. Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index increased by 2% to US$1,518 per 40-foot container, its sixth consecutive weekly rise. This is relevant to Philippine shippers because higher regional positioning and feeder costs can offset some of the benefit from falling long-haul European rates.

Drewry expects 39 cancelled sailings across the major East-West trades between 5 October and 8 November, from 710 scheduled departures. This represents a cancellation rate of approximately 5.5%, meaning most services are currently expected to operate.

The freight environment is therefore becoming more favourable for European importers, although Philippine quotations will continue to depend on feeder availability, carrier schedules, equipment positioning and the port of loading.

Outlook

Desiccated coconut remains stable, but the market is not without risk. Local replacement costs remain firm, Philippine DC export volumes have been lower, and the developing El Niño could place additional pressure on agricultural supply during 2027.

Coconut oil may remain softer internationally in the near term while palm and palm kernel oil markets are weak. However, rising domestic oil values and stronger El Niño warnings suggest that buyers should be cautious about assuming that today’s lower international prices will continue indefinitely.

A note on Rotterdam coconut oil prices

The Rotterdam market is now used relatively infrequently for physical coconut oil trading. A substantial proportion of international business is conducted privately between Philippine millers, major commodity traders and industrial buyers and is therefore not visible in published market data.

Consequently, a quiet Rotterdam market should not be interpreted as an absence of underlying business. We continue to report these prices because they remain one of the few transparent international reference points available, alongside our own market intelligence and direct trading activity.

TM Duché & Sons has worked with Philippine coconut producers and international customers for more than 50 years.

Please contact us to discuss current availability, forward requirements or market developments.