Coconut Market News 12th October 2026

Join us on Stand 5B R412 SIAL Paris, on the 19^th and 20^th October

The coconut market continued to soften this week. Desiccated coconut export quotations remained unchanged, but coconut oil, copra and domestic DC prices generally moved lower. At the same time, the intensifying El Niño and congestion affecting Philippine container movements are becoming increasingly important risks for the months ahead.

Desiccated coconut

The Philippine export price range for desiccated coconut remained unchanged at 109–190 US cents per pound FOB. This is now the 34th consecutive week without a change in the published range. – see the notes at the bottom of this email about Rotterdam price markets

The representative export average was steady at 135.17 cents per pound, equivalent to approximately US$2,980 per metric tonne before freight. This compares with 135.38 cents in September and 172.33 cents in October 2025.

Domestic prices softened slightly. The weekly average declined by ₱8.50 to ₱5,790.50 per 100-pound bag, while the quoted Manila range narrowed to ₱5,634–5,947.

Philippine DC exports totalled approximately 14,300 tonnes in August. This was 15.2% below August 2025 but 9.1% above the average monthly volume recorded during the first seven months of 2026. Cumulative January-to-August exports were 106,030 tonnes, compared with 110,240 tonnes during the corresponding period last year.

The market therefore remains stable in price terms, although the lower year-on-year export volume and developing weather risks continue to justify caution over forward availability.

Coconut oil

International coconut oil prices moved lower for another week. The nearest-forward European average fell by US$42 to US$2,027 per tonne CIF Rotterdam.

The market recovered slightly towards the end of the reporting period, with sellers indicating approximately US$2,030 for October/November, US$2,040 for November/December and US$2,050 for December/January. Forward offers increased progressively to US$2,100 for March/April 2027.

The Philippine Coconut Authority’s daily assessment on 9 October placed coconut oil at US$2,005 per tonne CIF Europe. Palm kernel oil was assessed at US$1,970, leaving coconut oil at a premium.

The softer international market reflects weaker palm and soybean oil sentiment together with improved copra availability in the Philippines. Coconut oil’s premium over palm kernel oil widened sharply during the week because PKO prices fell considerably faster.

Philippine domestic coconut oil indicators were mixed. The UCAP weekly averages increased to ₱114.50 per kilogram for crude coconut oil and ₱124.50 for RBD oil, excluding VAT. However, closing offer ranges softened to ₱103–123 for crude oil and ₱116.50–131.50 for RBD oil.

On 9 October, VAT-inclusive daily quotations were ₱106.40–133.28 for crude coconut oil and ₱128.80–142.80 for RBD coconut oil.

Copra prices fall

Copra prices weakened across most Philippine producing areas. The national average millgate price declined to ₱50.76 per kilogram, compared with ₱53.06 one week earlier. The average farmgate price fell from ₱41.37 to ₱39.52.

Quezon seller prices averaged ₱5,515 per 100 kilograms, down ₱220 during the week. Particularly sharp reductions were reported in Northern and Western Mindanao, where several provincial indications fell by ₱380 per 100 kilograms.

These falls point to better immediate raw-material availability and weaker processor demand. However, copra values remain sensitive to weather, exchange rates and any deterioration in future nut production.

El Niño update

The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center assessment, issued on 8 October, confirms that El Niño is continuing to strengthen. NOAA now gives a greater than 83% probability of a strong-to-very-strong event continuing through January–March 2027.

NOAA also estimates an 83% chance that the October–December period will reach a strength exceeding previous El Niño events in its historical record. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region increased to approximately 2.1°C, confirming that the ocean and atmosphere are strongly coupled.

PAGASA issued its fifth El Niño advisory on 7 October. For the Philippines, the main concern remains an increased probability of below-normal rainfall, dry spells and drought extending into the first half of 2027.

The latest UCAP rainfall report already shows a drier week across much of the country. Average rainfall fell from 58.1mm to 17.8mm in Luzon, from 41.4mm to 28.1mm in the Visayas and from 42mm to 31.4mm in Mindanao. A single dry week does not establish a long-term production trend, but it is consistent with the growing El Niño risk.

For coconut production, prolonged dryness can affect flowering, nut setting and fruit development. The market impact normally appears with a delay, meaning current copra availability may remain comfortable even as supply risks build for later in 2027.

Sustainable Coconut Roundtable in Bali

The Sustainable Coconut Roundtable concluded in Bali on 9 October following five days of farm visits, training, industry discussions and working sessions.

One of the most important outcomes was the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Sustainable Coconut Partnership and the Philippine Coconut Authority. The agreement establishes a joint match-funding programme intended to support the development and empowerment of coconut farmers at selected Sustainable Coconut Partnership Fund project sites.

Container shipping

Drewry’s World Container Index fell by 2% this week to US$4,351 per 40-foot container.

Shanghai-to-Rotterdam declined by 2% to US$3,337 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai-to-Genoa was broadly unchanged at US$3,696. Asia-to-Europe rates have now been under downward pressure for 13 consecutive weeks as Golden Week reduced demand and additional capacity returned to the market.

Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index also eased by 1% to US$1,503 per 40-foot container, following six consecutive weekly increases. Shanghai-to-Manila declined by 3% to US$1,027.

Despite the lower headline rate, conditions around the Philippines remain difficult. Hapag-Lloyd has temporarily suspended acceptance of new bookings to Manila, Batangas and Subic Bay, citing port congestion and severe restrictions on depot capacity and empty-container returns. This could create delays, equipment shortages and additional costs for Philippine exporters even while international freight indices are falling.

The overall freight direction is becoming more favourable for European importers, but congestion and equipment availability in the Philippines mean that individual quotations may not follow the global index immediately.

Outlook

The short-term coconut market has a softer tone. Copra availability has improved, international coconut oil prices have declined, and domestic DC prices have edged lower.

However, the longer-term outlook is less comfortable. A potentially exceptional El Niño is developing, rainfall has recently weakened, and Philippine port congestion is disrupting container availability. These factors could eventually offset some of the present price weakness.

For buyers with requirements extending into 2027, it may be sensible to balance the opportunity presented by today’s softer oil and freight markets against the possibility of tighter coconut supply later in the season.

A note on Rotterdam coconut oil prices

The Rotterdam market is now used relatively infrequently for physical coconut oil trading. A substantial proportion of international business is conducted privately between Philippine millers, major commodity traders and industrial buyers and is therefore not visible in published market data.

Consequently, a quiet Rotterdam market should not be interpreted as an absence of underlying business. We continue to report these prices because they remain one of the few transparent international reference points available, alongside our own market intelligence and direct trading activity.