Global Coconut Market Update 9 November 2026

This Week’s Market at a Glance

Desiccated coconut export prices remain unchanged at 109–190 US cents/lb FOB, marking 38 consecutive weeks of stability in the published range, although domestic Philippine prices continue to rise.

Coconut oil has strengthened, with European prices increasing by US$52.90 to US$2,080.85/MT CIF, while the latest Philippine Coconut Authority report places European coconut oil at US$2,125/MT CIF.

Local copra prices are also firming, adding pressure to processors’ raw material costs. Philippine desiccated coconut exports fell 10.4% year-on-year in September, contrasting with stronger coconut oil shipments.

Weather risks remain important as the industry looks towards 2027, particularly the potential development of El Niño and its implications for coconut production.

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Desiccated Coconut – Export Prices Stable, Domestic Costs Rising

The international desiccated coconut market continues to demonstrate remarkable price stability, with published export quotations remaining between 109 and 190 US cents/lb FOB Philippines for the 38th consecutive week.

The average quoted export price remained unchanged at 135.17 cents/lb, compared with 172.33 cents/lb in October 2025, representing a reduction of approximately 21.6% year-on-year.

However, the domestic Philippine market is showing a different picture.

Manila desiccated coconut prices increased to PHP 5,740–6,069 per 100 lb bag, compared with PHP 5,688–6,004 the previous week. The average domestic selling price increased by PHP 58.50 to PHP 5,904.50.

This divergence between stable export quotations and rising local production costs is worth watching. Higher prices for copra and fresh coconuts can increase pressure on desiccated coconut manufacturers, particularly where oil mills are competing for the same raw material.

Our outlook: Export quotations remain broadly stable, but continued increases in domestic coconut prices could eventually encourage producers to seek higher selling prices, particularly for forward contracts extending into 2027.

Coconut Oil – Prices Move Higher

Coconut oil was one of the stronger performers in the vegetable oils market during the latest reporting period.

The European market increased by US$52.90 per metric tonne, from US$2,027.95 to US$2,080.85/MT CIF, representing a weekly increase of approximately 2.6%.

The Philippine Coconut Authority’s subsequent report dated 6 November placed European coconut oil at US$2,125/MT CIF, suggesting that the firmer market continued into the following week.

Forward offers in Rotterdam were also higher, with sellers quoting approximately US$2,090–2,120/MT for nearby and early-2027 positions.

Interestingly, coconut oil has strengthened despite weakness in competing vegetable oils.

Palm kernel oil fell to approximately US$1,950/MT CIF on the nearest-forward comparison, while palm oil declined to US$1,553/MT CIF. This increased coconut oil’s premium over palm kernel oil to approximately US$131/MT, compared with just US$10/MT the previous week.

Buyers have shown particular interest in contracts covering the first quarter and early second quarter of 2027, indicating continued attention to forward supply.

As always, published Rotterdam quotations should be treated as market indicators rather than a complete record of international trading. Much of the coconut oil business is conducted privately between major commodity traders and Philippine producers, with transactions not necessarily reflected in publicly reported activity.

Our outlook: Coconut oil has regained some upward momentum, supported by firmer Philippine raw material prices and interest in forward deliveries. However, the significant premium over competing vegetable oils may limit further increases if buyers have opportunities to substitute alternative oils.

Philippine Copra Prices – Upward Pressure Continues

Copra prices have continued to recover across several important coconut-producing regions.

In Quezon, seller quotations increased to PHP 5,350–5,500 per 100 kg, compared with PHP 4,950–5,300 the previous week.

In Bicol, the Visayas and Mindanao, seller quotations reached PHP 6,050–6,300 per 100 kg.

The Philippine Coconut Authority’s 6 November report showed average farmgate copra prices at approximately PHP 40.00/kg, compared with PHP 38.32/kg the previous week.

Despite this recent recovery, prices remain substantially below levels recorded a year ago.

The increase is nevertheless significant for desiccated coconut manufacturers, as higher copra prices can encourage oil mills to compete more aggressively for available coconut supplies.

Our outlook: The direction of local copra prices over the coming weeks will be an important indicator of whether the current stability in desiccated coconut export quotations can be maintained.

El Niño Update – Stronger Weather Risks for 2027

The latest outlook from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issued on 8 October, confirms that El Niño is already established and strengthening.

NOAA expects a strong-to-very-strong El Niño to persist through January–March 2027, with a probability exceeding 83%.

For the Philippine coconut industry, this is an important development.

El Niño is commonly associated with reduced rainfall and higher temperatures across parts of Southeast Asia. Prolonged dry conditions can place coconut palms under moisture stress, reducing flowering, fruit development and ultimately coconut yields.

Importantly, the effect on coconut production is not necessarily immediate. Coconut palms have long development cycles, meaning the consequences of prolonged heat and moisture stress can continue to influence harvesting volumes several months after the initial weather event.

Our Outlook: This creates a potential supply concern extending into the second half of 2027.

Container Shipping – Drewry’s World Container Index

Global container shipping costs eased slightly during the latest reporting week, although rates remain considerably higher than a year ago.

According to Drewry’s World Container Index, published on 5 November, the composite index declined 1% to US$4,389 per 40ft container, remaining 124% above the equivalent period in 2025.

Drewry expects Asia–Europe freight rates to remain broadly stable in the immediate term, although increased capacity could make planned increases difficult to sustain.

There are also continuing geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz, while the return of vessels to Suez could create temporary congestion as different shipping schedules converge at European ports.

Our outlook: Freight costs may offer some relief to coconut importers if additional shipping capacity continues to enter the market. However, the published Shanghai routes are benchmarks rather than actual Philippine export freight quotations, and individual rates will depend on the loading port, destination, carrier and equipment availability.

A note on Rotterdam coconut oil prices

Physical coconut oil trading in the Rotterdam market is now relatively infrequent. Much of the international business takes place privately between Philippine millers, major commodity traders and industrial buyers, and is therefore not reflected in published market data.

Consequently, a quiet Rotterdam market does not mean there is no underlying business. We continue to report these prices because they remain among the few transparent international reference points available, alongside our own market intelligence and direct trading activity.