Complex issues for oil

Falling demand in Palm oil was the news yesterday. In fact Malaysia has seen the biggest slump in seven years in exports. Caused by low crude oil prices and worldwide glut in oilseeds. Palm oil futures fell 0.3% on the news from Intertek that exports may fall even further this month as the glut in oils continues. Also figures showing that Indonesia may produce 33 million tons of Palm oil this year as opposed to 30 million last year will also not help. However traders are looking to Indonesian government as they have announced a tripling of biodiesel subsidies. Coconut oil though has moved slightly higher trading just under $1100. Philippine production of coconut oil is expected to recover this year but with demand outstripping supply it’s unlikely that too much of the edible oil weakness will pass over into coconut oil.

Desiccated prices remain finely balanced at the moment. Philippine prices have been pushed in the last week by cheaper prices from other origins such as Indonesia. But with VCO demand supporting prices for desiccated there has been minimal movement on prices. It’s that demand for VCO that will keep prices firm really through most of the first half of 2015. But with other origins upping their production of VCO could the whole complex be looking expensive?