Difficult to predict

Markets are never easy to predict and now more so than ever. Back in March there were big predictions about failing crops due to ‘El Nino’ and so big shortfalls. Even with suspected down turn in demand caused by continued low crude oil still markets for edible oils were expected to reach record highs by the summer. Palm Oil was expected to hit a high of 3000 ringgit. Yet today sees a level of 2560 which is massively short. The reason why is that whilst crops have been poor they have not been as poor as thought. Also that downturn in demand has been much greater than predicted. With coconut oil whilst there was no major expectation for lower crop yields certainly crops were expected to be worse than last year. But that downturn in demand for edible oils has hit them all harder than thought. Coconut oil holds at $1400 but its been weaker recently tracking other oils. But with crude oil now maybe turning a little and certainly seemingly at the bottom will this give some strength to edible oils?

The desiccated market has been weaker since the rally in oils at the beginning of April. Oversupply does seem to be playing a strong role at the moment as shippers have extra capacity chasing buyers. However in America the high prices and uncertainty is keeping away from covering which is adding to the weakness. Some are predicting that if crude oil does now rise so will all oils going forward? But this is by no means certain and if crops continue to be better than thought then maybe prices could be weaker instead.

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