Edible oil set for a rocky start to the year

Will Palm oil crops rebound this year? Some are expecting crops to rise in Malaysia and Indonesia as much as 12% on last year. Also will demand dip as China and India focus on supporting internal edible oil markets? We have also seen Ferrero launch a marketing campaign to convince users of the ‘Nutella’ brand that Palm oil is not dangerous to eat. And then Greenpeace are challenging HSBC for what they claim is support of unsustainable Palm oil planting in Asia! You can though see why investor predication’s are for Palm oil prices to start to dip by 2nd quarter of the year. Coconut oil could though buck the downward trend or at least hold price. Damage caused by Typhoon Nina is likely to reduce crops for the first half of the year. Whilst the damage was not great it still will effect crops for the next couple of months.

Desiccated prices are in reality likely to raise in the short term as the recent typhoon squeezes the supply. This could last as long as middle of the year before we seem some recovery. But if edible oils also start to decline by the middle of the year then its possible prices could then start toe ease off. For now though demand remains high and supply slow to difficult.

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