What goes down…Are we near turning point for Palm and Coconut oil.

Production of Palm oil has been outstripping demand for a while now with prices dropping ever lower. But at its current level it seems unsustainable for farmers in Indonesia and Malaysia as they struggle to make enough at the current farm gate price. We are already seeing farmers switching crops which ultimately reduce some of the surplus. Its going to take a little time for this to have a big impact and stock are expected to continue to rise in November and maybe December. Also an ‘El Ninrm event looks now almost certain for Asia in the spring which will bring more pressure. Add in that governments in Asia are looking once more at Bio-fuels to rid themselves of surplus’s and to firm up prices. To that end the Philippine government are just announcing that they are raising the Bio-Fuel blending percentage there from 2% to 5%. The market reaction was for coconut oil to jump $100 in a day. Its likely as this new filters through the price of coconut oil will rise even further.

Larger buyers of desiccated coconut have been busy covering 2019 positions of late. The switch in edible oils to more likely to rise then fall has them rushing to cover. Traders in Europe have full warehouses but little bought forward. Indonesian shippers of desiccated have been stating recently that current low levels cannot be maintained and need to rise. Sri Lanka also has seen prices edging up as shippers there try to balance out production costs. Lets face it up is the likely direction.

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