Happy 2015

Welcome to 2015. 2014 story was one of falling edible oil prices and increasing stocks of Palm oil along with improved Soya production. Towards later end of the year falling crude oil prices become the story. So we enter 2015 and there are several predications for edible oils during the year. 2014 saw Global Palm oil production increase by 3.6 million mt but 2015 is expected to only increase 1.3 million mt. Also demand for Palm oil from emerging markets is expected to increase by 8% this year. 2015 is expected to see record export demand for Soya oil which should see support of the market. Crude oil though is remains extremely weak with opening 2015 prices approaching $50 a barrel.

These low prices will lead much lower demand for bio fuels which will balance out the upwards pressure for now. For now though the first quarter low production of Palm oil caused by low rainfall after monsoon rains of last year. Coconut oil looks set to track Palm for now with limited damage caused by last year’s typhoons so production for this year expected to continue its slow recovery after 2013. Desiccated prices for now are relatively unchanged after the extended holidays. Indonesia saw strong sales towards the end of 2014 which meant a number of the larger mid-level shippers selling out their positions through till Mar/Apr. Sri Lanka prices have risen slightly as they see some Middle East demand spilling over onto them. Philippine shippers remain the most expensive by some way however this premium is expected to narrow a little as prices firm up in Indonesia and Vietnam.

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