Market Update – 9th November 2022

Uncertain Times

Palm oil has been trading slightly weaker recently, with continued China lockdowns being the leading cause. Whilst slower seasonal production during November and December monsoons and higher energy costs are all supporting prices, lower demand from the second largest importer, China, is pushing prices the other way.

But after three years of COVID restrictions, traders wonder if China might change its position in 2023.

Soya oil prices have been supported by US demand for Biofuels, which, despite high crop levels, have kept prices boosted.

Will a US recession in 2023 impact demand for Biofuels?

But with high energy costs and increasing interest rates, Coconut oil has been slowly tracking up.

With only seven weeks or so of traditional typhoon season left, the Philippines has escaped any major impact on production; there may be a ceiling to any price increases.

We now see strong interest and bookings for Q1 and Q2 2023 for desiccated coconut. Buyers are keen to cover as overall edible oil prices edge higher, so locking in savings.

With ocean freight still falling and signs it might even hit pre-pandemic levels by the New Year, buyers seem more willing to commit further forward.

Supply remains good, so limiting that upside but still, with rising costs and now rising edible oil prices, how long before prices firm up?

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