Market Update End of July 2021

As the UK ends its first week of the end of lockdown measures against COVID, other parts of the world, including the Philippines, are increasing curfews. The Guardian in the UK reported on Friday that Filipino children are to be banned from going out!

Just 5.5 million Filipinos have now been fully vaccinated, which is just 5% of a population of 109,035,343, so the end of COVID related lockdowns is a long way off for the Philippines.

There has also been monsoon flooding with one of the first typhoons of the season Typhoon In-fa, with thousands of people fleeing from their homes and put up in COVID save refuges.

Supply in the Philippines is tight, so any further interruptions from COVID and Typhoons will only hurt production volumes.

Prices for Coconut continue to rise, with prices higher than the Dec 2017 highs, as demand continues to be high even during the usually quieter European summer months, and production is still behind. There is no opportunity to catch up and re-build depleted stock levels in EU warehouses.

Ports worldwide are getting regular COVID breakouts, added to delays – although the peak delays of the first half of 2021 appear to be getting a little better.

Shipping prices from the far east continue to remain at record highs with no sign they will get better this year. We are also seeing limited to zero availability for some routes into the US.

Forecasts are difficult to do right now – unpredictability is the keyword. We believe that prices will peak in Q4, and shipping costs will probably stay at the same rates well into 2022.


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