Market Update – Wednesday 8th June 2022

As the war in Ukraine pushes past the 100-day mark, it might be a good point to look at its impact on edible oil prices and possible market direction.

Edible oil prices hit record highs in March, driven by fear caused over the supply of these oils and grains supplied by Ukraine and Russia.

But with these spiralling prices and energy prices also rapidly increasing, what we have actually seen is also a sizeable drop in demand.

The result of this drop in demand has seen prices decline for April and May. But with the war showing no signs of ending, could it be that focus now switches back to the supply side?

Cooking oils around the world have been increasing rapidly in price. And short-term production shortages in Sunflower oil are currently having a significant effect on global stocks.

Are we starting to see the market bottom out?

Cereal prices have continued to rise month on month. Also, crude oil continues to climb again, with some expecting prices to not peak at the end of summer well above current levels. If so, then biofuels will again look cheap, adding to demand.

Lastly, shippers of desiccated have seen demand slump in the first six months of the year, just as the supply has been extremely good. But with shippers now switching to more profitable oil production and with issues in Sri Lanka caused by their economic uncertainty, could we see prices rise as supply dips.

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