Urgent Market Update – 2nd March 2022

War by its nature leads markets into uncertainty.

And for edible oil markets war in Ukraine has pushed the market to record levels.

Ukraine is the largest shipper of Sunflower oil, with Russia sitting just behind. Together they represent around 55% of the world’s production. And this oil itself is about 10% of the world’s edible oil crops.

It’s easy to see why markets are reacting in such extreme ways. Palm Oil hit record levels in trading this week. Coconut oil along with other edible oils is being dragged up as a result. Coconut oil has hit $2350 as a result up from $2150 which was before the conflict started.

But in the last 48 hours shipping has been the latest casualty. Shipping lines are rapidly withdrawing services to Russia and most won’t now take any bookings. But what of goods on the water? The question that’s raging as we speak is will they be delivered or not. There is a deeper concern about how this situation will affect vessels’ schedules and backlogs that already hamper the wider market.

Shipping delays from the Philippines along with high prices for that freight have been hampering the market since the beginning of the year.

Coconut crops have been good and production strong but limited vessel space has meant shipments from the Philippines have been much lower than most would expect. We are starting to see a squeeze on spot material with traders starting to hoard what stocks they have.

Indonesia is faring much better with freight, but shippers are reluctant to offer too far forward on a market that could go much higher.

Philippine shippers are heavily sold with April/May all but sold out.

June remains open but we suspect we will see a new round of buying so likely that position will close soon enough.

Edible oil market 2021

In million metric tonnes

Palm Oil               75.5

Soybean               60.28

Rapeseed            28.3

Sunflower           22.07

Palm Kernel        8.7

Peanut                  6.48

Cottonseed        5.08

Coconut               3.51

Olive                      3.28


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