Desiccated coconut

International export quotations remain notably stable at 109-190¢/lb FOB across the USA, Europe, and other markets. While the overall range stayed the same, the UCAP nearest-forward average slightly increased to 135.33¢/lb from 134.50¢/lb the previous week. This marks the twenty-third week in a row with no change in the quoted range.

The domestic Manila market saw a small uptick to ₱5,547-₱5,855 per 100 lb bag, up from ₱5,537-₱5,844 earlier. The average price rose by ₱10.50 to ₱5,701. This slight increase reflects tighter raw-material competition rather than a significant shift in export-market dynamics.Commercial view:

• The prolonged stability in export quotations supports short-term contract planning, but the range remains wide and does not fully reveal private trades between millers and major commodity houses.
• With local copra and nut values still elevated compared with June, processors have limited room to discount without sacrificing margin.
• For forward enquiries, maintain short quote validity and retain escalation protection where contracts extend into the wetter, higher-risk part of the Philippine season.

Coconut oil

Coconut oil led the market change this week. UCAP’s closest-forward European seller average increased by US$101.16/MT to US$2,057.83/MT CIF. Rotterdam offers closed around US$2,105-US$2,132.50/MT CIF for dates from October/November through March/April 2027, while the PCA daily foreign-market reference on 23 July was US$2,080/MT CIF. The market remains buoyed by the broader vegetable oil sector, rising energy prices, and biodiesel prospects.

Although coconut oil mostly traded below palm kernel oil, the average discount narrowed sharply to about US$35.55/MT from US$77.63/MT the previous week, indicating a relative strength recovery. In the Philippines, PCA’s 23 July millgate indications ranged from ₱100.80-₱134.40/kg for crude coconut oil and ₱135.52-₱144.48/kg for RBD cooking oil, both VAT inclusive. UCAP’s weekly ex-VAT averages also increased: crude to ₱113.50/kg and RBD to ₱126.70/kg.

Local copra prices

Copra prices surged sharply during the UCAP week ending 18 July, with the average provincial delivered-bodega price rising by ₱601.14 per 100 kg to ₱6,243.43. The highest regional quotes were in Mati and Davao City at ₱6,855, followed by General Santos at ₱6,615 and Cotabato City at ₱6,610. However, the newer PCA daily series for 23 July indicates some of this upward momentum has since diminished. The national average millgate price dropped to ₱52.73/kg from ₱57.17/kg a week earlier, while the farmgate average remained nearly unchanged at ₱42.31/kg compared to ₱42.38/kg.

Region X maintained a strong millgate average at ₱59.67/kg, with Regions IX and XII at ₱57.25 and ₱57.00 respectively. The key takeaway is that the market is volatile, not that copra has weakened: a rapid weekly increase was followed by a partial daily correction. Prices remain significantly higher than last month’s averages but are well below last year’s exceptional levels.

Container shipping – Drewry update

Drewry’s World Container Index declined for a second consecutive week on 23 July. The composite index fell 4% to US$4,374 per 40ft container. Shanghai-Rotterdam eased 1% to US$4,824/40ft, while Shanghai-Genoa fell 5% to US$5,988/40ft.

Drewry attributed the fall to easing demand and additional capacity on Asia-Europe and Transpacific lanes. Four blank sailings were scheduled for the following week on Asia-Europe, but the broader balance of supply and demand was still expected to push rates slightly lower. The relief should be treated cautiously: carriers have announced emergency fuel surcharges for August amid continuing geopolitical risk and concerns around key Middle Eastern shipping routes.

Implication for coconut shippers:

• The week-on-week decline offers modest relief for containerised desiccated coconut moving into North Europe, but spot freight remains high relative to the softer market seen in late 2025.
• Buyers should compare FOB plus independently arranged freight against CIF offers, particularly where forward bookings can capture the current easing trend.
• Allow for the possibility that fuel surcharges offset part of the headline spot-rate decline in August quotations.

Note:

The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.