Coconut Market Newsletter — 22nd June 2026

Copra, coconut oil, and local desiccated coconut prices continued to decline this week, mainly due to improved nearby supply and cautious buying, rather than an overall improvement in crop prospects.

Desiccated coconut continues to be the most resilient product line. UCAP reports exports remain steady for the 18th consecutive week, with prices between 109–190¢/lb FOB for the USA, Europe, and other markets. The nearest-forward quote is $1.41/lb FOB, unchanged from last week but lower than $1.45/lb in May and $1.70/lb in June 2025. Local Manila prices slightly declined to ₱5,521–5,827 per 100 lb bag, with the UCAP average at ₱5,674. This is ₱30 lower than last week but still above last year’s ₱5,211.69. This divergence indicates that export values are stable while local prices are easing, and raw nut prices are dropping. It suggests processors are not yet under cost pressure, though the risk of needing to replace exports remains high once the delayed effects of El Niño influence the nut supply.

Coconut oil prices continued to weaken. Rotterdam sellers closed at $1,865–1,930/MT CIF, with the nearest-forward UCAP average dropping $78 to $1,901/MT, compared to $1,979 last week and $2,698.73 a year earlier. PCA’s June 17 daily quote set coconut oil Europe CIF at $1,875/MT, reinforcing the downward trend. Domestic Philippine crude coconut oil was quoted at ₱89.60–123.20/kg by PCA, while UCAP’s weekly seller range fell to ₱85–118/kg from ₱90–119/kg the previous week. RBD coconut oil also declined, closing the week at ₱120–125/kg.

Copra remains the clearest lead indicator. On 17 June, PCA’s national average millgate price was ₱44.18/kg, representing a decrease of ₱1.28/kg from the previous week and ₱28.85/kg below last year. The farmgate price averaged ₱36.17/kg, down ₱1.31/kg week-on-week and ₱21.36/kg below last year. UCAP’s Quezon delivered-bodega average declined by ₱340 to ₱4,575/100kg for sellers, while offers in Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao mostly ranged from ₱4,850 to ₱5,200/100kg. The current market signals remain lower, but the price level has fallen enough to reduce aggressive farmer selling if weather risks become more apparent.

Shipping costs remain a significant landed-cost risk. On 18 June, Drewry’s World Container Index increased by 12%, reaching $3,969 per 40ft container—its highest in 18 months. Rates for Asia–Europe routes surged: Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 15% to $4,342, and Shanghai–Genoa increased 12% to $5,756. Drewry cites limited capacity on Asia–Europe routes, peak-season ahead of the 1 July bunker fuel adjustment, and carrier surcharges as reasons for the increase, with additional PSS and higher FAK rates announced starting in July.

Wider edible oils and updates: India’s May edible oil imports increased by 6.7% year-over-year to approximately 1.339 million tonnes, mainly driven by higher crude soybean oil shipments. This sustains strong global vegetable oil demand, even as lauric oils weaken. Palm oil stays supported due to energy market uncertainty, a stronger biodiesel policy, and El Niño risks, despite coconut oil temporarily diverging downward.

El Niño now represents the primary future risk. The US government agency NOAA’s 11 June ENSO update indicates that El Niño conditions are present and likely to intensify into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27. For coconuts, timing is crucial: drought stress impacts flowering and nut formation with a 12–18 month lag.