Market Update on Tariffs 7th April 2025

At the moment, there is one dominant topic on most people’s minds: U.S. tariffs.

While we understand that the situation could change at any moment due to negotiations or sudden policy shifts, let’s focus on the impact of tariffs on coconut imports for now.

Forgetting the potential global recession that may be on the horizon, if we narrow our focus to the effects of tariffs specifically on coconuts, we face a complex situation.

Looking at the new tariffs for the largest coconut-producing countries that supply the U.S.

• Philippines: new tariff of 17%, which represents approximately 60% of U.S. coconut imports
• Indonesia: 32% tariff – about 18% of imports
• Vietnam: 46% tariff – around 13% of imports
• Thailand: 36% tariff – about 5% of imports
• India: 26% tariff – approximately 4% of imports

Coconut prices are set to increase between 17% and 46%, but Philippine coconuts will be potentially the cheapest option available for U.S. buyers. This price difference will likely boost demand for Philippine coconut products.

The other possibility is that the tariffs could kill demand for coconut products as companies look for alternatives—but given that the tariffs have been applied to most countries, all the other options are also likely to go up as well as the US does

Consequently, countries like Indonesia and Vietnam may need to seek alternative markets for their coconuts, as the U.S. will absorb a significant portion of the supply. Offloading cheaper coconut into markets like the EU.

Additionally, there is an unknown factor regarding a potential exemption for coconut imports based on 19 CFR 10.39, a regulation stemming from the Trade Act of 1946 and subsequent treaties. This rule allows certain goods produced in the Philippines to enter the U.S. duty-free if they meet origin requirements and the Philippines maintains its treaty status.

As of now, it seems that U.S. customs, the U.S. administration itself  and not sure what to do.

The rest of the world is watching, and they are also wondering what to do as well.