Coconut Market Newsletter – Week Ending 7th July 2026

The Philippine coconut market remains split between weaker international coconut oil values and firmer local raw-material prices.

Rotterdam coconut oil continued to trade with a bearish tone. Nearby Europe sellers averaged US$1,854.20/MT CIF, down US$15.90/MT from US$1,870.10/MT the previous week. Offers finished the week around US$1,850–1,870/MT CIF, as demand stayed subdued and origin availability improved.

Key market signals include:

·       Coconut oil has moved into a discount versus palm kernel oil.

·       UCAP reported an average weekly discount of roughly US$74.83/MT, compared with a premium in the prior week.

·       Buyers remain cautious and are not yet prepared to chase lauric oil prices higher, despite broader firmness in parts of the vegetable oil complex.

Desiccated coconut continues to be the steadier product. Export offers for the USA, Europe and other markets were unchanged at 109–190¢/lb FOB, marking the 20th consecutive week at that range. The statistical average for desiccated coconut was 141.50¢/lb FOB, flat week-on-week but below May’s 145¢ and well below June 2025’s 170¢. Domestic desiccated coconut in Manila moved higher, however, to ₱5,518–5,825 per 100-lb bag, with the weekly average at ₱5,671.50, up ₱74.50 from the previous week. This indicates local processing costs are still supported even as export quotations are resisting upward adjustment.

Local copra has firmed further. In Quezon, sellers were quoted at ₱4,750–5,000 per 100 kg, while buyers improved to ₱4,650–4,900. The Quezon average rose ₱230/ck week-on-week to ₱4,855 sellers and ₱4,755 buyers. In Bicol, Visayas and Mindanao, seller ideas were higher at ₱5,150–5,200/ck, with buyers at ₱4,250–5,100/ck. The strongest provincial quotations remain in Northern Mindanao, led by Surigao City at ₱5,085/100 kg, followed by Gingoog, Cagayan de Oro, Iligan and Ozamis.

Container freight risen again with Drewry’s World Container Index for 2 July 2026 rising 9% to US$4,530 per 40-ft container, driven by rate increases on Transpacific and Asia–Europe lanes. On the key Far East–Europe corridor, Shanghai–Rotterdam increased 7% to US$4,682/40-ft, while Shanghai–Genoa rose 10% to US$6,360/40-ft. Drewry expects rates to rise further in coming weeks, supported by peak-season demand and disciplined capacity management. This adds landed-cost pressure for coconut oil and desiccated coconut buyers shipping from Asia into Europe.

Wider edible-oil markets are mixed. FAO reported that the vegetable oil index rebounded in June, supported by higher palm and rapeseed oil quotations, while soybean oil softened. Palm oil has been volatile, with recent pressure from expectations of rising Malaysian output and stocks, although Indonesian biodiesel demand continues to support the medium-term supply narrative. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka reported coconut export earnings of US$514 million for January–May, up 21% year-on-year, confirming that value-added coconut demand remains resilient despite freight and geopolitical headwinds.

Coconut oil remains offered and demand-led, while copra and domestic desiccated coconut costs are firmer. Exporters should watch whether higher container freight and stronger local nut values finally force DC offers upward, or whether muted buying keeps FOB levels frozen for another week. And in the background the El Niño still remains a worry for long term pricing and availability.