Coconut Market Update – Prices Highlights and El Niño in the News

Weather and supply: El Niño risk on 2027 pricing

With the El Niño developing this year. What people need to think about is the 13-month biological lag: the weather-related effects in late 2026 will primarily affect nut fall and copra weights into 2027. The main forecast suggests tighter supplies in the Philippines (and other countries) starting in Q4 2026, with the most notable shortages expected in Q2 & Q3 2027.

For coconut, producers consider the 2026 price floor sustainable, with potential gains of 15 to 25% through 2027 under standard conditions, and an even higher risk of profits if El Niño peaks strongly.

Price highlights: desiccated coconut

Philippine-origin desiccated coconut prices remain steady at USD 3,230/MT FOB, stable for about 13 weeks on the Rotterdam market. This stability likely indicates tight supply supporting prices, rather than weak demand. EU indications for Philippine conventional material are generally EUR 2.72–3.13/kg FCA, while Indonesian prices continue to trade at a discount in Europe, around EUR 1.95–2.05/kg.

Local Philippine indicators are also strengthening. UCAP reports export ranges of 109–190¢/lb FOB, remaining steady for approximately 14 weeks, while Manila desiccated coconut prices have risen to PHP 5,527–5,834 per 100-lb bag week-over-week.

Coconut oil & copra: softer tone, but not a structural break

The coconut oil market remains the weakest point within the lauric market. Crude coconut oil (CNO) CIF Rotterdam prices are approximately USD 2,220–2,250 per metric ton. UCAP’s nearest-forward Rotterdam reference also declined, with sellers asking around USD 2,186 per MT for the week ending 16 May.

In the Philippines, crude coconut oil offers are about PHP 109–135 per kilogram (VAT excluded), though buyer activity is notably subdued.

Copra prices are mixed across the Philippines but remain elevated versus the year ago.

UCAP indicates that the Quezon mill is offering prices between PHP 5,950 and 6,300 per 100 kg, while Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao regions are around PHP 6,350 to 6,500 per 100 kg. PCA’s daily market report for 22 May shows a national average millgate price of PHP 58.05 per kg, with farmgate prices at PHP 46.88 per kg, slightly lower than previous week. This trend aligns with a recent increase in nut flow into mills as the dry season approaches.

Freight: Drewry index rising, Asia–Europe lanes step up

Container freight trends are reversing compared to oil prices. According to Drewry’s World Container Index, rates increased by 6% to USD 2,712 for a 40ft container as of 21 May. On the Far East–Europe route, the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate jumped 15% to USD 2,773, while Shanghai to Genoa rose 10% to USD 4,082, indicating an early peak-season boost. Moreover, carriers are implementing 1 June FAK rate increases for Asia North Europe shipments, highlighting the importance of securing bookings in advance and revisiting landed-cost calculations for fixed-price European contracts.

Wider edible oils & market news to watch

Two key factors will influence coconut prices in the second half of the year:

The recent softening of the broader edible oil and energy markets eases short-term cost pressures on processors; however,

Palm oil continues to serve as a price anchor. Policy changes in Indonesia, such as export regulation adjustments, could raise the price floor for palm oil, which would also help limit downtrend risks for laurics.

Overview

Our view is to keep near-term expectations realistic—coconut oil may remain rangebound as demand stays cautious. However, consider the Philippine desiccated coconut as a forward-cover story, since weather and logistics can rapidly reprice the market once Q4 supply tightness appears.

Note:

The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.