Coconut Market Update 13th July 2026

Desiccated coconut: export quotes steady

Export offers for desiccated coconut remained at 109–190¢/lb FOB for a twenty-first consecutive week. UCAP’s average price increased slightly to 142.75¢/lb from 141.50¢/lb. Domestic prices in the Philippines rose to ₱5,528–5,836 per 100-lb bag, with the weekly average at ₱5,682, up ₱10.50.

The unchanged export prices hide a market still segmented by grade, specification, and contract timing. Rising domestic nut and copra costs may gradually boost replacement values, but overseas buyers remain cautious after last year’s extreme prices.

Coconut oil: prices steady but buyers cautious

The European market for coconut oil saw some strengthening this week, though trading activity stayed muted. UCAP valued nearby coconut oil at US$1,890/MT CIF Europe, up US$35.80/MT from the previous week. Offers mostly closed around US$1,880–1,900/MT, with buyers largely on the sidelines. Coconut oil continued to trade below palm kernel oil prices, with the discount widening as PKO prices increased sharply.

The Philippine Coconut Authority’s daily report on 10 July listed European coconut oil at US$1,980/MT CIF, suggesting the market maintained upward momentum after UCAP’s weekly assessment. Domestic millgate prices ranged from ₱112–123.20/kg for crude coconut oil and ₱125.44–142.24/kg for RBD coconut oil, VAT included.

Copra values also rose, with the national average millgate price reaching ₱53.16/kg—about ₱5.21/kg higher than the previous week but still nearly ₱20/kg below last year.

Strength was strongest in Mindanao and Eastern Visayas, where prices reached ₱59/kg in Regions IX and XII. The uptick in copra may support Philippine crushing costs, though the large decline compared to last year indicates raw-material availability is now more comfortable than during the tight 2025 market.

Freight: rates from Far East to Europe rise again

Drewry’s World Container Index increased 2% to US$4,639 per 40-foot container, the highest since September 2024. The Shanghai–Rotterdam route rose 5% to US$4,933, while Shanghai–Genoa climbed 2% to US$6,463. The firming prices are due to limited Asia–Europe capacity, and rates are expected to stay high in the near term. For coconut exporters, the higher costs reduce the benefit of falling product prices and increase landed costs for European buyers.

El Niño becomes a supply risk

El Niño is now active and likely to strengthen through the end of 2026, with NOAA estimating a 97% chance it will persist into early spring 2027. (Climate Prediction Centre) The immediate effect on Philippine coconut output may be limited, as coconut yields tend to lag rainfall stress. However, extended dry spells could lower nut setting and reduce copra and desiccated coconut supplies in 2027. Therefore, the market should view the current softer year-on-year copra prices cautiously, as weather-related risks are mounting even if current supplies seem sufficient.

Note:

The Rotterdam market is rarely used nowadays. Most transactions are handled directly by major commodities traders, typically known as ABCD—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, with Wilmar also being a significant player. These firms buy directly from millers in the Philippines, thus bypassing the Rotterdam market. When we refer to a quiet market, it doesn’t necessarily mean no business is being done; rather, it is just not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of the market’s overall health or future direction. The UCAP in the Philippines relies on this information for its market forecasts, as it is the only available resource. We also pass this information on as part of our many information sources, noting that we do not have access to private trades beyond our own.